SAG Predix: Will They Really Give "The Help" 3 Prizes?

Only two more awards shows to go before we reach Oscar night. One of them is tonight. SAG sometimes surprises (remember 2002 and 2003?) and sometimes goes total consensus. Let's take a stab at this... which is easier to do with statues with sharp corners. LIVE BLOGGING HAS BEGUN!

Best Actress
Nominees: Close, Davis, Williams, Streep, Swinton
Will Win: Viola Davis because the most voters have seen her film and because she's great in it.
Will Win: Meryl Streep because she's Meryl Streep and it's a biopic and actors are crazy about those and because it's a virtuosic impersonation.
Will Win: Michelle Williams because she's the new "Best of Her Generation" actress everyone is excited about and because it's a biopic and...

Okay. Yikes. I suspect it's a tight three woman race. I'd like to believe that Viola's box office and general narrative will differentiate her just barely enough. On the other hand actors rightfully worship Streep and she might win this with ease and she's definitely the most likely winner for voters who haven't seen all their screeners. I mean if I was voting blindly I'd always vote Streep (not that I'd vote blindly). On the other otherhand (we've grown a third arm) perhaps the vast voting body of the guild will have a heatwave for Michelle Williams as Marilyn Monroe.

Best Actress has the odd and slightly unpleasant distinction of being filled with performances that are mostly significantly better than the film housing them (though this is not to say that all of the films are terrible). Given that rather specific sandbox, I'd argue that Davis does the most successful job of working against her film's limitations. As technically great as Meryl Streep's work is, it just can't vault the hurdle of "why was this film even made other than to win Best Actress awards?" None of the other films, not even My Week With Marilyn leave quite the same "why does this exist?" aftertaste. But then again, films made solely to win awards no matter how shamelessly obvious about that they are,  have never been exactly shunned by awards bodies so that might not matter at all. Plus after taste is hard to notice while you're still eating which is why some distributors wait till the last possible second for voters to see movies they want votes for.

Okay, okay: Streep.

Best Actor
Nominees: Bichir, Clooney, DiCaprio, Dujardin, Pitt 
Will Win: George Clooney for his movie star charisma. He seems to be just sailing through this awards season with ease as if his performance towers over the competition. Strange.
Should Win: Brad Pitt for his movie star charisma and how it completely suits his character and his film and for the simple matter that he gave two incredible performances in the same year, one of which is this one right here. It's always a pity when career peaks happen and awards bodies are only vaguely paying attention, temporarily blinded by other flashy objects in the same room. 

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Branagh, Hammer, Hill, Nolte, Plummer
Will / Should Win: Christopher Plummer. Like Clooney he has no competition for the win in his category. The main difference being that his performance easily reveals why that is.

Best Supporting Actress & Best Ensemble
Nominees: Bejo, Chastain, McCarthy, McTeer and Spencer 
Nominees: The Artist, Bridesmaids, The Descendants, The Help, Midnight in Paris 

Octavia Spencer and Melissa McCarthy are, like Brad & George, friends and competitors both. But more importantly they're also both in awesome female ensembles. Voters have shown in the past that they don't mind giving acting prizes AND the ensemble to the same film but won't they want to throw Bridesmaids something instead of possibly giving The Help three of their five prizes?

I'd love to predict a Bridesmaids win in ensemble and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility especially if voters do the old "vote for the film you'd most like to have been in" (in which case this is Help vs. Bridesmaids vs. The Artist) but as SAG has settled into its [ahem] 'precursor duties' they've strayed further and further from thinking about ensemble and moved right into thinking about Oscar so a win for a movie that's not up for Best Picture might be beyond their imagination now (in which case this is The Help vs. Descendants vs. Midnight vs. The Artist)
Will Win: Melissa McCarthy (repeating the Emmy surprise?) and The Help... though maybe i have it in reverse and wouldn't that be fun.
Should Win: These categories are killers, so many good performances. But If I was voting I'd throw Ensemble to Bridesmaids and Supporting to... god, who knows. This is why I still haven't finalized my own awards.

ON TO THE SAG LIVE BLOGGING

Eiko Ishioka (1939-2012)

Deneuve with Ishioka on Oscar night 1993The cinema lost one of its few truly unique visionaries this week. We've paid homage before and multiple times. 73 year old costume giant Eiko Ishioka, who didn't work in the cinema frequently enough for our tastes succumbed to cancer on Thursday.

We first fell in love with her work via Bram Stoker's Dracula (1992) and it was hardly an idiosyncratic crush. Millions were instant converts and she won the Oscar for her spectacular creations, from inside out red musculature armor to dazzling perverse lizard-like bridal wear for vampire brides. Just stunning stuff.

I'd be very disappointed/surprised if some goth girl somewhere hasn't tried to copy Sadie Frost's indelible vampire bride look for her wedding night.

Sadie Frost in Bram Stoker's Dracula (1992)

Best single costume of the 1990s? Maybe.

In the past decade Ishioka wowed again through Tarsem Singh's filmography (The Cell, The Fall, and Immortals)

Bjork, Grace and a few more film pics after the jump...

Kellan Lutz filming a scene from Immortals (2011)

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What's Going On At Sundance?

Parker Posey in "Price Check"If you're anything like me, you have trouble paying attention to Sundance unless you're actually there. It's not that it isn't a great festival. It's that it arrives during the explosion that is the Oscar Nominations. But nevertheless, a few crumbs about what's going on there, before they hand out their awards (the festival ends tomorrow). These are a few bits I found interesting from the vast amount of information that's pouring out of Park City. 

Parker Posey is baaaaack. She's starring in the dark comedy Price Check as an ambitious marketing head of a grocery store chain.  IndieWire talks to her about her various Sundance journeys which just gives me one more excuse to tell you that my fondest memory of Sundance ever was the time she danced with me on the dance floor at a party. That really happened. I sometimes think I dreamed it. She was as fun in person as she is onscreen.

Marc Webber's The End of Love is getting a lot of press by way of casting. The director -- who you'll know as an actor from Scott Pilgrim vs. The World -- cast his own two year old son Isaac as his co-star in this film about a widower and his son. Though it's based somewhat on his own life, Webber's is not a widower, he's a divorcee. Apparently people are l-o-v-i-n-g the toddler. Consider this tweet from Josh Dickey at Variety:

Awards season 2013 prediction: a viral supporting-actor campaign for 2-year old Isaac Love."

I could see that working in an Uggie for Best Supporting Actor kind of way. At the very least it's publicity.

One of TFE's favorite character actresses Melanie Lynskey (who recently shared her memories of Heavenly Creatures with TFE readers) has a lead role for once in Hello I Must Be Going. The film has been well reviewed, especially when it comes to her performance as a 30something divorcee who falls for a younger man. We'll see it the first chance we get. Go Melanie!

One comedy getting plentiful laughs and attention is the debut film Bachelorette which is a mean girls comedy starring Kirsten Dunst, Lizzy Caplan, James Marsden and Isla Fisher. I don't only bring this up because the cast sounds perfect/delicious.

I bring this up because the writer/director, first timer Lesley Headland is an old frienquaintance from here in NYC. She invited me to a workshop of one of her first plays here in NYC five years ago and I gave her one of her first quotes.

Hilarious. Forceful. Insightful. As a character (Leslye writes and acts the part) "Arden" has an infectiously raucous energy with that fascinating sexy and/or terrifying aura of a young Sandra Bernhard."

The play later opened in LA and then returned to New York. She even guest blogged for The Film Experience! And now she's directed a movie starring Kiki Dunst and I am still blogging. Oh christ. What have I done with my life?

The Surrogate is the film that's garnering the most Oscar buzz thus far but it's always hard to know with Sundance hits if they'll transfer once they're in lower altitudes. The film stars Winter's Bone Oscar nominee John Hawkes as a man with no movement below his neck (Oscar loves a disability) who loses his virginity to a sex therapist played by Helen Hunt. Fox Searchlight will distribute the film but since it's an Oscar hopeful, it might be 11 months until it's in theaters. (Sigh)

Helen Hunt and John Hawkes in "The Surrogate"

A Sample of The Deals from the Wintry Slopes of Park City
The Weinstein Co, usually a buyer, is mysteriously absent. But they have a ton of big name films already planned for 2012 including the latest from Tarantino so perhaps their schedule was already locked up. 

•Robot and Frank, "a sci-fi crowdpleaser" according to EW, stars Frank Langella as a man who develops an odd relationship with the robot his children gift him with. Sony Pictures and Samuel Goldwyn will partner on the release.
• How to Survive a Plague, an AIDS doc, purchased by Sundance Selects 
•For a Good Time Call... went to Focus Features.
•Beasts of the Southern Wild, a debut from Benh Zeitlin, purchased by Fox Searchlight
•Red Lights, a psychological thriller, will be distributed by Millenium Entertainment.
•Celeste and Jesse Forever was bought by SPC. It's a romantic comedy starring Rashida Jones and Andy Samberg.
• Liberal Arts is from writer/director/star Josh Radnor following up his happythankyoumoreplease with a romantic comedy costarring Elizabeth Olsen. I'm beginning to think she'll be the Jessica Chastain of 2012 or 2013. So so so so so so so many films.
•Arbitage, a financial drama starring Richard Gere that's been likened to Margin Call, jointly purchased by Roadside and Lionsgate
•Wish You Were Here, an Australian thriller starring Joel Edgerton, purchased by Entertainment One
•Simon Killer, from the collective that brought you After School and Martha Marcy purchased by IFC . Brady Corbet moves up to leading position after supporting roles in their other films.
•The Words starring Bradley Cooper, Dennis Quaid, Jeremy Irons, Olivia Wilde and Zoe Saldana is about a writer and a genius manuscript he finds. It went to CBS Films 

'darling leave a link on for me' ♫

IndieWire and Cinema Blend Reports just keeping coming on the casting of the Charlie Kauffman's musical Frank or Francis. Kate Winslet, Catherine Keener, Paul Reubens and Elizabeth Banks now added to the cast.
Coming Soon Sarah Jessica Parker will now play Gloria Steinem in Lovelace (Demi Moore is out given her troubles. I haven't followed it actually but there are problems, yes?)
Backstage Blogstage interviews Joyful Noise director Todd Graff on his habit of making musicals
Broadway Blog Did you know that Jessica Chastain and Michelle Williams once worked together? Now you do!

Flavorwire TV inspired nail art. Dexter! (sidenote: omg how bad was season six?)
College Candy super cute video of Melissa McCarthy freaking out about encounters with Brad & Angie and Meryl Streep
Carpetbagger talks to Oscar nominated cinematographer Jeff Cronenwerth (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo). He met David Fincher on the set of Madonna's "Oh Father!"
Rope of Silicon a new very risque poster for Shame in its international release. 
Kenneth in the (212) enjoys Armie Hammer's mug shot a little too much.
24 Frames Brad Pitt is not one of the nominated producers of The Tree of Life, after all (it was "TBA") so only two Oscar nominations this year for Our Brad. 

Blooper Reel for The Artist anyone?

And because it's super annoying, but you might want to see it, I've added the 3D Avengers poster after the jump.

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Bridesmaids To Bring Us Joy on Oscar Night

Whether or not they win Ensemble at the SAG Awards on Sunday night -- be right here for the live blogging! --we'll see all six principal cast members of the hit comedy at the Oscars. They're the first announced presenters and the press release says that

This will mark the first Oscars appearances for all six actresses"

Hmmm. That must mean on the stage since hasn't Maya Rudolph been there with her man Paul Thomas Anderson for like There Will Be Blood or something? I can't remember. 

This news filled me with a rainbow burst of happiness but I'm going to be so sad if they don't sing at least one bar of Wilson Phillips.

Which category will they present? Give us BOTH your best guess and the category you most wish they'd present in the comments! I'll pick a winner and send you a Wilson Phillips CD*

*not really. But play along anyway!