Final Balloting is Underway...

Members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (that's AMPAS to you!) can now cast their votes on the Oscar winners in all categories. They have one week to do so with ballots closing on February 27th. The long stretch between nominee and winner voting should ostensibly give them time to screen all the movies they may have been late in getting to and to really suss out their views of "Best" in each category, but strangely this waiting period doesn't usually result in the game-changing upheavals, contrarian impulses, or reconsiderations that you would think would be possible. That's especially true when the precursors march forward in total agreement (as recently discussed in the BAFTA winners post). 

So while we can't bring you DRAMA in these last 12 days pre-Oscar (del Toro, McDormand, Oldman, Janney and Rockwell are all as locked as locked can be) we hope to find other ways to entertain you as we count down and wrap up the film year in these next two weeks. 

Nevertheless if you have a miracle request / FYC to Academy voters put it out their into the universe (i.e. the comments) in a positive 'look at this beauty' way.

Blueprints: The Nominees for Best Original Screenplay

With the Oscar nominations finally announced, Jorge takes a deep dive into the nominees for Best Original Screenplay.

We all rose to the crack of dawn on Tuesday morning to hear Tiffany Haddish give the most upbeat and energetic nomination announcements in recent memory. One of the best picked categories was Best Original Screenplay. Even though there were no real surprises, it showcases a range of diversity not often seen: among the nominees is a Pakistani, a Mexican, a black man, and three women. Three of those people were also nominated for Best Director.

So let’s do a quick roundup on the nominees, their writers, their past history with Oscar, and what scene might have helped land them that nomination... 

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Globe Predictions Anyone?

by Nathaniel R

A few days back David Poland asked the Gurus of Gold to predict the Globes and I became obsessed with the notion that I, Tonya would be the surprise heavyweight. I was pretty much alone in that with nearly the entire group thinking Lady Bird's got this in the bag (a couple of people think Get Out). I think my I Tonya prediction was more a product of my fear since the wildly positive response to the movie surprised me and sent me back for a second viewing which only strengthened my resolve that it's a) not good and b) highly problematic...

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All Oscar Charts Updated

Wanting to while away a few minutes between Christmas feasts, clean up, or socializing? Check out the fully updated Oscar predictions. A gain here or there for Get Out, Three Billboards, Victoria & Abdul, Mudbound, and Wonder a big net loss for Darkest Hour and various tinkering. Meanwhile Oscar voting doesn't even start until January 5th so here comes the last big push for campaigns to get those screeners watched and the movies talked about!

Would Be Totally Confusing If It Were Still 5 Only, Right?: Picture
Will Hurt From the Inevitable Snubs: Director and Original Screenplay
Outcome Still Feels Quite Cloudy: Foreign Film, Adapted Screenplay, Animation and Docs
Locked But For "Never Underestimate Judi Dench" Factor: Actress
Precursors Shook 'Em Up: Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress
Anyone's Guess: Visuals and Aurals

Does Woody Harrelson spell trouble for Willem Dafoe?

by Nathaniel R

A police chief and a hotel manager, both overwhelmed and sympathetic and arguably the moral center of their movies.

It's been a long time since we had a double-nomination situation in Best Supporting Actor. The last time it happened was 26 years ago when Ben Kingsley and Harvey Keitel were nominated together for Bugsy (1991) - a curious event since Keitel was so much stronger in another Oscar nominated classic from that year. Given the rise of Woody Harrelson with that Screen Actor's Guild nomination and the overall assumed strength of Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri in the Best Picture race, it could well happen again. His co-star Sam Rockwell, already felt locked and loaded for the same movie in a (somewhat) larger part. 

But does this spell trouble for Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project? Consensus was beginning to form that Dafoe, who became famous in the mid 80s and has worked ever since, would easily walk away with the Oscar this year...

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