"Shape of Water" way way out front at the Critics Choice Awards

by Nathaniel R

As always, full disclosure: I am a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association. So this award announcement is always filled with anxiety for me because I want to be heard. We all want to be heard. Nevertheless most of the longer shots I rallied for didn't make it, he said, pushing away a single tear. The Shape of Water led with 14 nominations... and it was so far out front it nearly doubled the nominations afforded to its nearest rivals (a clump of them jammed together with 8 nominations each:  Call Me By Your Name, Lady Bird, Dunkirk, and The Post).

As ever I'm disappointed that the nominations double so heavily as "general Oscar pundit predictiveness" but here they are in their fullness with very immediate and perhaps too impulsive commentary after the jump.

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Every Oscar Chart Updated!

Oscar voters don't begin voting for quite some time still but precursors season is off like a shot: we've already had the Gotham Awards, the Spirit nominations, the NBR and NYFCC announcements and the Directors Guild of America got their nomination ballots this week, too. They generally come close to matching Oscar's eventual list and in ye olden times of 5 wide categories they were considered the single best predictor for the eventual Best Picture nominees. We pray they choose wisely this year. It'd be so great to have a female director in the shortlist this year, wouldn't it? (hint hint) 

In case you've missed various posts like Adapted Screenplay confusion, the diverse director field, and the deep best actress & supporting actress bench, please to know that every Oscar prediction chart has been revamped. Some new text, some fresh images, and definite shifts in ranking. Read them and weep or rejoice depending on whether your favorites are predicted or not.

PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTRESS | ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SCREENPLAYS | FOREIGN FILM | VISUAL CATEGORIES | AURAL CATEGORIES | ANIMATED AND DOCUMENTARY CATEGORIES

Which actresses are we underestimating in the nomination hunt?

by Nathaniel R

Are we underestimating them: Winslet, Bening, Chastain, Haddish, Vega, Dench, Williams, Stone, Chau, Blige, Scott Thomas, Gadot

If you look around the web you'd suspect we are closer to Oscar nominations than we actually are. Two months remain before we have our Oscar nominations (57 days to be exact) so there's a month of campaigning left before the Academy even starts filling out their nomination ballots! Despite the plentiful time remaining and few precursors yet announcing (NBR is first tomorrow), the internet seems convinced that we're narrowed down to about 6 or 7 players for 5 slots in virtually all the acting categories. But is it this cut and dry?

It's likely not.

We know the general field at this point but there's still a lot of wiggle room, some films/people are always underestimated and the reverse at this point. But even if none of the 12 women we've including in the image above end up with a difficult to snag Oscar nomination, I'm curious if any of them will be cited anywhere this season from precursors to the Globes to SAG to regional critics groups. What do you suspect?

RELATED: Updated charts for Best Actress and Supporting Actress. Thoughts?

Save the Date(s) ~ Awards Season Calendar

The Awards Happy months begin! Your guide to the remaining important calendar dates of the year. Televised ceremonies, crucial influencer nominations, and all actual Oscar-related events are in bold. 

NOVEMBER

2 Critics’ Choice Documentary Awards

3 Thor Ragnarok, Lady Bird, and Last Flag Flying open

5 European Film Award Nominations
5 The Film Experience's "Supporting Actress Smackdown" of 1944

10 Three Billboards, Murder on the Orient Express, and Thelma (Norway's Oscar submission)

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Oscar Chart Updates - All Categories

Check out the charts and report back, won'cha?

• INDEX • PICTURE • DIRECTOR • ACTRESS • ACTOR • SUPPORTING ACTRESS • SUPPORTING ACTOR • VISUAL CATEGORIES • SOUND CATEGORIES • SCREENPLAYS • ANIMATED FEATURES •

Major foreign film chart updates tomorrow