Naked Gold Man: Oscar Wears No Watch, But It's All in the Timing

With more and more of the heretofore unseen contenders (Tintin, J Edgar, Young Adult, War Horse, etcetera) beginning to show their goods to tastemakers and balloting voters of various orgs & circles & associations... where to now? Or when to?

Time is a funny thing with Oscar watching. Though the race progresses chronologically in familiar ways each year through its many stages, it's simultaneously a non-linear experience. We're always hopping around in the timeline from the future (What Will Happen on Oscar Nomination Morning? On Oscar Night?) to the past (Statistics, Past Grudges, Happy Memories, The Perennial Subject of "Overdue" and "Momentum" and Over Analysis of Things That Just Happened). Back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. The time we're very rarely in is the present. If we're in the present at all (wrist check: it's 2:19 PM on 11|06|11 as I begin writing this) it's to take immediate stock of our surroundings  and then suddenly we're gone again. We've either instantly reduced the present to how we predict it will affect the future... or we've turned it into validation of our past biases or predictions.

A hypothetical example now. J Edgar reactions* range from reverential but not unqualified raves to respectful with a heavy cloud of "meh" to plain old "wow, it's just not any good!" thumbs down. Which means...

J. EDGAR is... [check whichever box applies in your hypothetical future tenses]

⎕ Still in key races. It's a biopic by Eastwood.
⌧  Out of the race but for Best Actor because it's that kind of role and he's that kind of star. 
⎕ Going to bomb with Oscar and the public.  

* no, I don't know why some critics have to obey embargoes and some don't.

That's all hypothetical, understood?!?

ACTOR, ACTRESS, and PICTURE past | present | future after the jump.

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3 Notes on New Photos: J Edgar, Hunger Games, Pines

You may have noticed that I don't post every "exclusive" new photo!video!thingamajig! the second it's released. I figure you can get them in 760,000 other places and if I post too many of them there will be no room for the words which is why we do this thing they call blogging. And this: I'd prefer to get paid advertising on the site than give free advertising. That said, I'm thinking we should include more so maybe roundups like this?

Here we go...

• I want that tie. I want it windsored up in my business immediately. Would it be unprofessional to beg Deborah Hopper for it first chance I get to interview her?
• Despite the Oscar friendly nature of the bulk of Clint Eastwood's modern filmography, none of his movies have ever been nominated for costume design. Could this be the first?
* Armie Hammer is very handsome.

to see more click on this photo

• Christian Bale's Bruce Wayne looks just like Patrick Bateman which... well, may the costume designer never put him in a transparent splatter protection jacket. 
• Joseph Gordon-Levitt in a cop suit does nothing for me. I prefer him in Slim Jim Joe Inception suits. 
•  Those extras in the background are really given it their all! You know they were so excited to get the gig. "I'm going to be in a Batman movie!!!!!"

Hunger Games and The Place Beyond the Pines after the jump

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Linking Out

The Wrap delivers the lightning-fast raves and the deafening silence for Tin Tin and J Edgar respectively.
Vanity Fair remembers super agent Sue Mendes (RIP)
i09 on a news item about modern research on The Black Death that will make Contagion even scarier!
In Contention Will Super 8 and Tin Tin win Sound Editing nominations? 
L.A.M.B. held a little movie of the month / blogathon about Bronson (2008) starring Tom Hardy. That's a good movie to check back in on given what's become of both Hardy & its director Nicolas Winding Refn. You'd certainly never see Drive's (2011) exquisite control coming in this earlier picture... though you can easily see Refn's oversized personality reflected therein. 

Finally, I'd like to say congratulations to Zachary Quinto (Heroes, Star Trek) who finally came out this weekend. Quinto has been one of those 'everybody knows' celebrities for quite a while and I have to admit that when he starred in the recent revival of Angels in America last year (which I thought he was quite good in) and especially when he did his own "it gets better" video, I was getting uncomfortable. It seemed strange to star in such a defining gay work and to chase it with an "it's totally okay to be gay!" message of tolerance while staying closeted.  But... that's all past tense now. Good on him for doing the right thing. I especially like this bit on his official site:

...living a gay life without publicly acknowledging it - is simply not enough to make any significant contribution to the immense work that lies ahead on the road to complete equality.

Damn straight! I mean... er.... yes, well, carry on. Well done Zachary! Live long and prosper.

Naked Gold Man: War Horse Un'Lock'ed & Oscar Vote Theories

Weekly Column! Just in time for weekly chart updates. You heard me!

Let's start with an oft-forgotten fact: there are no "locks" until films are open and seen by the Academy. Even then, positive reactions don't always translate into votes. War Horse would be the right example. It feels like a winner by way of pedigree (Spielberg and Team), topic (World War), intangibles (the Broadway play on the same topic is a hit!) and early peeks (the trailer), but until voters are actually watching any movie from start to finish, you can't know.

Until you have seen a movie there is no way to consider how it tugs at your own heart (or doesn't), how it seizes your imagination (or doesn't) and how your instant reaction sizes up with general consensus. Instant reactions do not happen in lockstep with voting (at least not usually) and consensus --  which is say the wisdom of masses, media favoritism, and opinions from one's own social circle  -- absolutely affects individual response though people regularly feign otherwise.

Seeing the pictures is key and without the keys, aren't locks mere abstractions?

J. Edgar is another prime example. It's got the pedigree team, the baity topic and genre, but the second people are watching it things will change, for better or worse. I can't say that I'm hopeful after seeing the dull musty trailer, which plays more like the zombie corpse of an Oscar contender rather than a lively shiny hopeful. But then, I didn't get the Clint Eastwood Appreciation Gene so I readily admit that I am no representative sample.

To win nominations a film (or performance) must not only win hearts, minds and imaginations but it must stack up favorably against its competition. In other words "locks" for films or actors no one has seen are an absurd notion. Take War Horse again... will its message resonate with voters as much as The Help's? Will the young male lead (no, not the horse) inspire them or make them feel as protective as his counterpart in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close might? Will anything within War Horse, stimulate like the wit and adult soul of Moneyball? Does the equine war drama have any lighter moments and are they as effervescent or charming as the best scenes from The Artist or Midnight in Paris? 

If nominations were held RIGHT NOW, right this second, and all films that have been seen by a lot of people -- i.e. multiple festivals (whether they're technically open yet or not) were eligible these would be your only "Locks"

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Yes, No, Maybe So: "J. Edgar"

That vibration you're feeling on the ground, that telltale rippling disturbance in your glass, is the clomping arrival of one of 2011's (presumed) Oscar behemoths, Clint Eastwood's biopic of FBI man J Edgar Hoover called J Edgar [official site].

Don't wilt like a little flower. Be strong."

Which means we have to get down to our yes, no, maybe so breakdown of things that make us want to buy a ticket, run away screaming, or mull it over before committing. As a founding member of the oft reviled and totally misunderstood* 'Clint Eastwood is Overrated Club' I realize my breakdown will already be broken for some. But I do approach each trailer with as open a mind as I can muster given my general leanings. In this case everyone knows (and I'd never deny) that I vew cradle-to-grave biopics as the mustiest of all film genres; they aren't inherently cinematic with their staccato 'greatest hits' survey of life since movies are always strongest when they capture something seismic in miniature about a character, story, time, or theme that suggests rather than illustrates a major life beyond two hours.

YES

Is that legal?"

• Ummm... welll... oh, okay. Got one. The font of the logo is excellent with those flamboyant J and G curls in the otherwise Serious Man signature.
• Like everyone else I'm curious to see how well the actors handle the "alleged gays" material.
• Maybe Armie Hammer has a lightness of tone that will help it. Though he looks vaguely brainless when he puppy smiles directly at Mr. Hoover, the "is that legal?" line has hints of mischief and love of life.
• The shot of the John Dillinger death mask reminds us that plot point, already cinematized on its own, has plenty of juice should they squeeze.

The trailer in question and more commentary after the jump

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