Podcast: Instant Reactions. Oscar Nom' Morning

Oscar Nomination Morning has always been like Christmas day to me. I sleep restlessly. I wake early. I tear open my presents. When I first met Nick Davis ten years ago, we knew we were kindred spirits since it's also like that for him. In some ways it can be even more exciting than Oscar Night. More to celebrate / complain about. We lean celebratory as best we can here. Congratulations to you and you and you and you... and okay, you too.

You can download the podcast on iTunes or listen right here at the bottom of the post. If you haven't yet seen the nominations, we have a full chart.

podcast topics include but are not limited to... 

• Oscar as Christmas. Troubled sleep.
• "Man or Muppet?", Bret McKenzie and Original Song
• Blockbusters and how they performed in their categories.
• Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and War Horse overperformed while The Help underperformed
• Echo chambers and their limitations ... especially in the various craft categories. 

• Tilda Swinton's Oscar trajectories
• NINE BEST PICTURES? Spreading the wealth.
• Iron Lady's makeup and Harry Potter's nominations.
• Brad Pitt happiness.
• Congratulations to all the nominees... except you.
• Actually we breeze through everything! 

Here's our instant reaction to the nominations!
I did no editing on this one so when you hear only silence that is Nick and I both furiously reading names on a screen rather than paying homage to The Artist.

Other New Oscar Posts
Here's an FYC for next year ;)  | Virgin Oscar Nominees | What would you say if you got an Oscar nom? |  Prediction Stats

Instant Reactions

How We Did On Our Predictions! How About You?

I am not one to put too much stock in "scores" for Oscar Predictions. It's more exciting to predict something fewer people saw coming and this is why, I think I'm much better at "year in advance" predictions than most pundits; I don't always embrace the "sounds good on paper" options. But there's a flip side! My willingness to take risks always hurts my stats somewhere down the line. Nevertheless we have to take stock. It's fun to survey where you soared and plummeted each year. On average I'm completely happy with my track record. Here are my hits and misses!

I had a sensational batting average with Moneyball

My Perfect Scores
Supporting Actress. I knew Janet McTeer was stronger than people were guessing. She's a gender bender and Oscar loves drag. She totally steals the movie and Oscar loves Grand Theft Movie. Plus, it's a moving role with modern resonance.
Best Director. I figured Terrence Malick was too much of a god among directors for his peers to pass up.
Cinematography. Though I'll readily admit that this didn't feel too terribly tough to predict.
Moneyball and The Artist and Hugo and A Separation. I guessed their every placement correctly...which seemed risky with two of them.

Incorrect Guess That I Was Still Kinda Right About
I knew that if Rooney Mara prevailed it'd be Tilda taking the dive. Tilda Swinton joins Sally Hawkins from Happy Go Lucky in the exclusive sorority of  "People With More Precursor Notices Than One Could Possibly Dream of But No Oscar Follow Up" ...It's a very long name for a very tiny club.

Abject Failure
Wow did I ever miss on Original Song this year. Even with five guesses I couldn't manage 1 correct one. But then, this category is the worst. The documentary branch and the foreign film branch get the most push back each year on needing guidance and rule adjustments but it's actually the music branch that's in dire need of infrastructure work. More on that in the podcast (coming in a couple of hours. It's uploading). I also made a mess of the Documentary Feature category where I only guessed 2 correctly (Pina and Paradise Lost 3).

The Single Thing I Feel Stupidest About Missing
John Williams double nomination for score. I only guessed War Horse. I predicted him to get his umpteenth double nomination for practically the whole year until the precursors and other pundits convinced me to jump on the Dragon Tattoo train which I never felt right about (in that particular category) since Reznor & Ross's Oscar success with The Social Network felt like such a wonderful anomaly. Wonderful anomalies rarely repeat themselves.

The Long Shot I Most Wish I'd Predicted for Bragging Rights
Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. In retrospect it'll feel kind of obvious to people especially since Supporting Actor felt unstable beyond Plummer. And here we have a legendary actor in a mute role (when does Oscar not go for that?) 

Something I Both Overestimated and Underestimated.
The Power of The Weepie. I put all my eggs in The Help's basket but War Horse and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close both ate into the demographic that Mark Harris amusingly dubbed "tear duct based voters" 

My Stats
37/44 in the big eight categories 
74/104 in the categories everyone tries to predict... the sound-based categories just destroyed me! 
83/119 if you include the shorts which many people don't bother with. 

How'd you do? 

*purists (you know who you are!) may quibble that I predicted only 6 Best Picture nominees. But hello the number is a separate guess from the titles ;)  I listed them in order of likelihood "if 6 nominees then... if 7 nominees then... if 8 nominees then... " etcetera which means I scored 8/9 for the Best Picture nominations. Ta da! If you don't count it that way it penalizes the people who guess fewer and awards the scaredy-cats who guess ten spots to cover all their bases. 

Oscar Nominations for 2011 (2012 Ceremony)

BEAR WITH ME AS I UPDATE! MORE COMING INCLUDING A PODCAST! ENTIRE OFFICIAL NOMINATION CHART IS COMPLETE (individual category pages will reflect the nominations by end of the day with more intricate updates to come)

We've finally arrived. So many shockers this year in the nominations including nine best pictures. Most people assumed, given the complicated math required to become a Best Picture nominee, that the number would be closer to five than ten. A nine nominee total indicates that there wasn't a ton of consensus. Lots of pictures had passionate bases.

Things I was right off the top of my head: If Mara made it she would bump out Tilda. I got Moneyball exactly right in each category. Supporting Actress perfect score. Chico & Rita for animated film!
Things I was wrong about off the top of my head: I overestimated the nomination tally of The Help and underestimated War Horse, Dragon Tattoo and Extremely Loud (but then didn't everyone?).  

BEST PICTURE

• The Artist Thomas Langmann, Producer
• The Descendants Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor,Producers
• Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close Scott Rudin, Producer
• The Help Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, Producers
• Hugo Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers
• Midnight in Paris Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers
• Moneyball Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers
• The Tree of Life Nominees to be determined
• War Horse Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy

FULL CHART FOR EVERY CATEGORY  -individual pages not yet complete but the chart is fully "official" now.
MY HITS AND MISSES - prediction stats, bragging rights, shameful stumbles
PODCAST - has been recorded! Waiting for iTunes to receive it.

Oscar Morning Jitters and Madness

7:50 Good morning! I woke up with a start. In my dream, which we'll call a nightmare, it was 12:59 PM and I had completely forgotten about the Oscar nominations at 8:30ish and I was already HOURS behind. Bless the clock for talking me down. It was only 6:59 AM. All was well... for the moment.

Things I'm dying to find out: 1) What Supporting Actor will look like since it seems ripe for upheaval. 2) Which of the six Supporting Actresses with major awards traction will be left on the cutting room floor. 3) Whether The Artist or Hugo will lead the nomination count. 4) Whether The Descendants will follow in Previous Payne footsteps and miss some key expected nomination. 5) Whether The Girl With the Fincher Tattoo is really the big deal the guilds positioned it to be. 6) Everything.

You?

8:06 The radio just said "The Artist, Descendants and War Horse are expected to be nominated". Ummmm. I'm not sure Joey the horse is "expected" at this point. And leading with that film? NPR needs help.

8:14 I actually did yoga right when I woke up this morning. That's how much I'm seeking a zen place as this madness begins. Namaste. Etcetera.

8:34 The live comments on this feed from YouTube are crazed. It's all HARRY POTTER for the win. Poor muggles. They'll be so sad in a few minutes.

8:38 THE MUSIC. HERE WE GO. Bring on Jennifer Lawrence, Tom Sherak.

8:45 Holy crap. So many surprises and 9 best picture nominees. I'll update as fast as I can.

Nathaniel's Ballot: Best Actor

Another few hours, another write up. I might have to quit here... quickly losing energy and must store some up for the Oscar onslaught on the morrow. 

One thing that's really been bothering me about The Artist backlash is the notion that the movie doesn't really understand silent films, drawing as much from 1930 and 1940s and even 1950s cinema visually and aurally as it does from the 1920s. My very erudite response to that criticism: So what?!?

A pure "found film" is not what Michel Hazanavicius and team were going for here which you can see quite obviously in [SPOILER ALERT] the dream sequence and the finale which both work like sound films [END OF SPOILER]. I love that Jean Dujardin pulls so liberally from Gene Kelly (1940s and 1950s) rather than strictly silent movie stars for example since The Artist is polyamorous in its loves. People have reduced it to a love letter to the silents but it's just as smitten with the very tumult of movie stardom and the idea of Hollywood in general and those things span decades. We're still in love with them in 2011! 

MY BEST ACTORS
Each year it seems like I have at least one acting category -- two at the most! -- that closely align with Oscar and Best Actor is where we might meet sorta see eye to eye. Crossing my fingers for Michael Fassbender's Shame to resonate with enough voters, though I've predicted otherwise.