A conversation with a secret SAG voter

by Nathaniel R

A special treat for you today, dear readers. Yesterday I spoke to a SAG voter I've known for awhile now about their ballot choices.  I can't reveal their identity, of course, since they're not allowed to speak publicly about their votes. But we can share that they are actively working in the industry, and they do read The Film Experience from time to time (hence how we are acquainted).

We hope this conversation offers some incites into what it's like to get a ton of screeners at the end of the year and have to make these choices for your ballot.

NATHANIEL: Hello! Thanks for agreeing to do this. I know you've been a member of the Screen Actors Guild for some years but is this your first time serving on the actual Nominating Committee?

SAG VOTER: Yes. I  got an email in the summer that I had been randomly selected and whether I could meet the requirements. I was excited to influence the awards in a small way. But honestly, I think I saw visions of advance screenings dancing in my head.

And, now you're probably just sitting at home watching screener after screener. So glamorous! 

I haven’t left my couch (thanks, COVID) and I could open a DVD store. (But of course, SAG legal team, I will not. I will destroy them all as required by law.)

Before the avalanche of screeners hit, what had you seen that you were already a fan of?

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Interview: Lin-Manuel Miranda on "Encanto" and "tick, tick...BOOM!"

by Nathaniel R

at the world premiere of "tick, tick, BOOM!"

I had the pleasure of interviewing Lin-Manuel Miranda in November while he was doing press for Encanto, now streaming on Disney+ with its soundtrack doing great business, too. He was energetic and smiling and gave great quote. Just a few days later, in a significantly less arranged moment, we came face-to-face the night of tick, tick... BOOM!'s premiere in Los Angeles. The response to the movie that night couldn't have been dreamier. He looked elated if significantly more tired than he had over Zoom. He admitted at the party that the entire week was a total blur. Just the week? The entire past year has been one Lin-Manuel Miranda highlight after another. So much so that we named him one of our top three entertainers of the year. In addition to questions about Encanto, tick, tick...BOOM!, and Hamilton, I made sure to ask him how he finds time for sleep.

[This interview has been edited for clarity.]

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Will Omicron wreak havoc at the Oscars?

Early January is typically a big time for Oscar campaigns but the Omicron variant has events scrambling, postponing or cancelling. (Rumor is that an announcement of Sundance going all virtual is imminent.)

Patrick Ryan collected some thoughts about all of this from pundits (including yours truly) at USA Today so check it out. One of the things I mentioned to him that wasn't included since the article is more about what's happening rightnow is that I'm hopeful that the Oscars themselves will go on as planned. When they first announced the date for the tail end of March, it felt overly cautious. Though it seems like a million years ago the Parasite Oscars were in early February! Turns out the Academy was savvy not to try to jump back to previous timetables immediately! That extra padding they built in this time should help avoid another delay. 

Updated Oscar Prediction Charts 

Oscar Chart Revisions - Everything Updated!

We're finally done with the post finalist Oscar charts. So have a look at the list. Whenever you finish prognosticating individual categories and start taking a more holistic view, it's easy to see how difficult the prediction game can be before the guilds narrow things down. Do I really think we'll have, not one, but two Best Picture nominees (Licorice Pizza, CODA) with only two nods each? No i don't. But what to cut and from which category? Do I really think Belfast will get as many nominations as West Side Story? I didn't think so but on the other hand...

On the Best Picture page
Let's take a risk and read the future trajectory and drop Nightmare Alley from the top ten. The initial recency bias of its first wave of big expectations and precursor succcess is fading and nobody is much talking about already. But expectations matter so it could coast in anyway. 8 Best Picture spots feel fairly secure which leads you to ponder which would get the boot in the old days of just 5 nominees: Power of the Dog, West Side Story, Dune, Belfast, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, CODA, and Don't Look Up. But the 9th and 10th slots are a truly a free-for-all...

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Oscar Charts: Best Actor & Best Actress

by Nathaniel R

Stewart and Cumberbatch have hogged the lion's share of critics awards. Will gold statues follow?

Both lead acting charts have been updated so take a look at BEST ACTOR and BEST ACTRESS. Both categories are giving off the vibes of being set in stone already before SAG has even announced their nominations so we'll soon see if that's an illusion or the truth. I've made one big adjustment in Best Actor, having Leonardo DiCaprio in Don't Look Up vault over rising but minor critical darling Nicolas Cage in Pig and knocking out Peter Dinklage in Cyrano. Cage maybe could have happened had critics really rallied but they were too busy praising Benedict Cumberbatch to really take a Pig stand. As for Dinklage, though the role is an awards magnet,  MGM/UA just didn't seem to know what to do with that film even though it's a) easy to market b) well liked by most people who see it... and kept pushing back its release. Better to have just saved it for 2022 at this point we think. And for Best Actress, there are no major changes, just a bit of order shuffling. I'm sticking with the five women who keep getting cited everywhere. Yes, there is a lot of PERFORMANCE and PASSION happening in the second tier of Best Actress hopefuls but it's getting harder and harder to see a path for any of them, even previous Oscar darlings like Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and buzzy newcomers like Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza). Unless SAG honors one of them, it's this five until Oscar night. 

Revised Oscar Charts

• Director
• Lead Actress
• Lead Actor
• Supporting Actress
• Supporting Actor
• Cinematography
• Production Design
• Film Editing
• Visual Effects
• Makeup and Hairstyling
• International Feature Film
• Animated Feature
• Documentary Feature