Best Actor - Just how volatile is that fifth spot?

by Nathaniel R

Former Oscar winners: Denzel, Nicolas (and Javier Bardem) all rising on the chart

Oscar chart update time. The SAG nominations threw a wrench into Best Actor predictions with the inclusion of the polarizing performance (or rather polarizing casting) of Javier Bardem as Desi Arnaz in Being the Ricardos. But is he really a threat to the nomination? Probably, yes, as Oscar's acting branch loves almost nothing more than celebrities playing other celebrities. Not all biopics are about celebrities or star bonafide celebrities so this is a special awards-magnetized division of the overall 'genre' if you will. We think he might be nominated -- especially if Nicole Kidman becomes the clear favourite in Best Actress -- but he's hardly locked up. Especially because it seems extra foolish to assume his nomination chances are as sturdy as the other four SAG nominees (Will Smith, Andrew Garfield, Benedict Cumberbatch, Denzel Washington) who have all scored at all three important precursors (which Bardem has not). 

Our conclusion. The fifth spot is a true free-for-all...

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FYC: Ruth Negga in "Passing"

by Cláudio Alves

Earlier in the awards season, I became discouraged at the thought that the year's best performance was doomed. Critics didn't rally behind Ruth Negga as I had hoped, and her film, no matter how spellbinding, looked likely to be ignored. Despite such worries the arrival of prominent Oscar precursors and industry awards has revitalized hope. After Globe and SAG nominations, Negga is poised to earn a second Academy Award nomination for her supporting turn as Clare Bellew in Rebecca Hall's cinematic adaptation of Nella Larsen's novel Passing. But of course, even when a nod feels secure, it's never a bad idea to gild the lily and remind folks of an actress's genius…

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Ariana DeBose, Saturday Night Live, and Oscar Campaigns

by Nathaniel R

As you may have heard Best Supporting Actress Oscar hopeful Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) will be hosting Saturday Night Live when the show returns tomorrow, January 15th. That's just 12 days before the Academy starts voting on nominations. Which got us to thinking: How often is Saturday Night Live used as a campaign stop for Oscar hopefuls and is it successful? Let's do a little research. We're only going back five years for time constraint reasons but we do wonder when this became a thing or if it's always been thus? I have only ever been a casual SNL viewer but perhaps there are Saturday Night Live experts reading who could shed some light...

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Who is now in the lead for Best Actress?

by Nathaniel R and Team Experience!

The morning after and we're still reeling from the SAG nominations. But in particular what it's done to presumptions about the Best Actress category. I've updated the Oscar chart but after a brief flirtation with Nicole Kidman as #1, I suddenly felt the urge to give that spot to Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter. Is this insane? Not exactly though it is probably the common pundit psychosis of "overthinking it". My pundit brain began imagining that all the biopic ladies are getting in each other's way with their elaborate makeovers and mimicry (or lack thereof) and through the chaos emerges the true stealth battle of all along: superstar Lady Gaga vs revered thespian Olivia Colman.

Lady Gaga is also playing a real person, like the biopic ladies, but Patrizia Reggiani isn't a famous celebrity being recreated by another famous celebrity as is the usual draw of these things. So the traditional biopic advantage (aka default love for "what a transformation!") doesn't quite apply in Gaga's case. In the end given Olivia Colman mania and Gaga's film having more detractors, is it so outlandish to presume a quick second win could very well happen. So I polled the team, hoping that a crystal clear hive mind pundit choice would emerge. Whoops! Though there is a hesistant "consensus choice" opinions are truly all over the place.

Here's how the team responded to the big question of the moment...

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The Oscars will finally have a host again... but who?

by Nathaniel R

This just in: The Oscars will have a host again after two years of going without, two very tumultuous years! We assume that the Academy will select someone safe, like Jimmy Kimmel again, but we really hope they take a risk and think "entertainer" rather than "talk show host". Given the Academy's talk show host preferences we live in absolute fear of James Corden being asked to host. But the Oscars are not meant to be a conversation but a spectacle/party. The best hosts have nearly always been Oscar-ceremony loving actors who are naturally fun (funny is less important) and at ease with live performance like Hugh Jackman, Whoopi Goldberg, or Billy Crystal. We know Hugh Jackman is off the table as a returning host since he's in the middle of a Broadway run with the revival of The Music Man. We're not sure who started the "Tom Holland should host" thing on the internet (during the Spider-Man No Way Home Oscar-campaign frenzy) but he'd mostly fit that bill minus maybe the Oscar-loving part. We enjoy him onscreen but in interviews he doesn't sound remotely aware of THE MOVIES beyond his own tiny corner of them. Nevertheless he'd probably be a good risk.  He's charismatic, a great dancer, and very popular at the moment. 

In our actressexual world here at TFE we always dream of naturally hilarious actresses hosting...

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