Awards Update: "Mad Max" for OFCS / "Youth" for EFA

Michael Caine finally takes a prize for YOUTH. But is it too little too late for Oscar to notice?ICYMI in Awardage
"Previously on The Precursors..."  Gotham, Spirit, OFCS, NBR, NYFCC, LAFCA, BSFC, SAG Noms, SAG Ensemble, Golden Globes, Nominee Reactions, BFCA Noms

The Online Film Critics Society jumped on Furiousa's rig to go on George Miller's wild apocalyptic ride.  Mad Max Fury Road took 4 prizes, the clear winner of their annual honors. Carol won both acting awards for women because that's the world we live in... I could see this happening at Oscar too if they also embrace Rooney Mara's fraudulent "supporting" campaign (sigh). I love both of those performances so I want to be happy about it but... you know... it ain't right. Unless they actually tie for Best Actress. But that's only happened once, so...

Kudos to OFCS for breaking the critical sweep for Amy in documentary -- it seemed strange given the hundreds of documentaries released each year that only one film would win things. They went with The Look of Silence.

More on online critics and the European Film winners after the jump...

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Oscar Prediction Updates - Carol's Up. But What's Down?

Will Oscar voters love how obsessed with Oscar statues the SAG nominated TRUMBO is? It's been an enormously busy week with precursor decisions confusing and clarifying in equal measure. Even if you don't put much stock in the Critic's Choice Awards (also known as the BFCA, an organization that includes your host) it'll be interesting to see what they come up with since ballots were due today and so many questions remain. Though the organization prides itself on Oscar predictive power (a very weird thing to pride yourself on unless you're a pundit rather than a critic) the confusing nature of the race won't make things easy on any pundit.

While I've been accused of overthinking various races often (who, me?) such is the curse of punditry and Oscar obsessiveness. Here's where I think we stand now...

PICTURE & DIRECTOR If this race we're taking place in 2008 with the old school five-wide race it would obviously be Spotlight, The Martian, Carol, The Revenant, and Room at this point with one of the directors jettisoned for Mad Max's overachievement by George Miller. Beyond that it's so complicated both because we don't know how many nominees we'll get and because seven other pictures still seem plausible as a Best Picture nominee for one reason or another though they had shakier reactions in these first two precursor weeks. For instance: Creed hasn't been doing all that well but I still think it's a big Oscar possibility. Am I crazy or just concussed? And speaking of...

The SAG miss for Sir Ian McKellen could spell trouble for his Oscar dream

ACTOR While I don't imagine we'll see a repeat of Will Smith's Globe nominated Concussion performance on the Oscar shortlist it's one of about ten performances that still seem to be in the race. You'll have to cleave that in half in January. DiCaprio, Redmayne, Fassbender, and Cranston all have the key nominations (Globe & SAG) but each year at least one or two people across the four categories with that combo miss and you need #1 votes given the Academy's nomination tallying system. So which performances or beloved actors have the most passion behind them? This is why I still think Michael B Jordan or even Sir Ian could surprise despite the lack of SAG or Globe love; it's always important to remember that those voting bodies are quite dissimilar to Oscar's acting branch.

SUPPORTING ACTOR Precursors have coalesced around Michael Shannon, Idris Elba, and Mark Rylance but because the former two weren't what people widely expected, CHAOS REIGNS. Sly Stallone still feels like a potential winner IF he's nominated. And will Oscar really deprive anyone from Spotlight of an acting nomination? That would be so weird for such an actor's friendly Best Picture frontrunner.

but who will be on CHARLOTTE's ballot? ACTRESS & SUPPORTING ACTRESS We'll have to list these two together because of the ongoing controversy surrounding Rooney Mara (one half of Carol's brilliant romantic coupling) and Alicia Vikander (who has two films splitting supporting honors Ex Machina and The Danish Girl, even though she's the leading lady of both). The discussions around these two have sucked so much oxygen out of the room for other women (in both the leading and supporting races) that I imagine they're both still getting nominated for Supporting DAMNIT since voters likely haven't thought through their other options . The solution: quality longshots should be working their asses off for the next two weeks to remind people of their existence (We're talking to you: Kristen Stewart, Elizabeth Banks, Julie Walters, and Cynthia Nixon)  since Academy voters don't get their ballots until the end of the year. Over in lead actress only four women feel secure (yes, that includes Charlotte Rampling. Come at me!) which means it's a true free for all for the fifth-slot. This week I chose Lily Tomlin as the lucky lady but it could be anyone from the second tier of the chart (or Mara or Vikander).

The other category charts will be updated this weekend -- SAG & Globe choices tell us virtually nothing about Oscar tastes when it comes to the other categories so we can think awhile longer on it.

Investigate the new charts and report back. What does your crystal ball say?

"Room" and The Case for Jacob Tremblay

Kieran, here with a second look at SAG nominee Jacob Tremblay's work in Room.

My antennae were attuned for several things this past weekend while watching Lenny Abrahamson’s Room for the second time. I’ll say up front that searching for the power of Brie Larson’s accomplished, already heralded performance as Ma was not one of them. That was received on first watch and, frankly hadn’t faded from memory even a little. A rewatch only confirmed the potent emotionality of Larson’s work and it’s fortunate that work this exemplary is being so universally recognized as such—that isn’t always the case. Among other things, I was watching for Jacob Tremblay’s performance as Jack, Ma’s doting and mystified son.

Full disclosure: I often find praise heaped upon juvenile performances incredulous. Like many, I found myself fighting tears (and losing that fight) several times throughout my first viewing, most often during Tremblay’s scenes. The grimness of the initial scenario and the bond between Ma and Jack on the script level had my suspicions raised. Was Tremblay’s performance itself eliciting the emotional response or is it solely because of what’s already built in to the architecture of the piece?

This was my question going into Room for the second time. [More...]

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Black Mass and Acting Beats

If there's a surprise SAG Best Ensemble nominee this year on December 9th, you should fully expect it to be Black Mass. Not that something can be a surprise when you fully expect it but let's not split hairs. Especially not hairs carefully threaded through bald caps.

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Sir Ian McKellen Charms the Brits. And Other Oscar Stories.

Nathaniel again in my last post directly from LA. I'll have to leave you in the good hands of Team Experience tomorrow as I'm travelling back across the country to home base NYC. This afternoon I had the pleasure of attending a Brit-heavy brunch with various BAFTA & Academy voters to honor Sir Ian McKellen in Mr. Holmes, one of the year's biggest indie hits.

Look at the starry talent that showed up to support him...

Jane Seymour, Sir Ian, Sir Patrick, Kathy Bates, and The Lovely Laura Linney

Did you know that Jane Seymour and Sir Ian McKellen go all the way back to 1980 together, having co-starred in Amadeus (1980) on Broadway? She was wife to Tim Curry's Mozart and McKellen was Salieri (and won the Tony) but none of the stage cast were used in Milos Forman's Oscar-devouring film version in 1984. I was able to say hello to all the actresses. I informed Kathy Bates of her devout fanbase at The Film Experience and she credited American Horror Story for giving her new fans but admitted the bloodiness of the show was a bit much for her (same) and that drinking the fake blood was disgusting. We even talked about her Oscar-winning work in Misery as I shared earlier today on twitter.

I asked Kathy Bates if she'll be seeing MISERY on Broadway. "No. But I sent them flowers from 'your #1 fan.' I know that's corny!."

— Nathaniel Rogers (@nathanielr) November 15, 2015

Longtime readers, particularly "par3182" who named her thus, will be happy to know that "The Lovely Laura Linney" is now aware that at The Film Experiencce we only ever refer to her by that full title and have for years. One may not even say 'Laura Linney' in casual conversation as it must be properly heralded with 'The Lovely'. She beamed with all the apple-cheeked radiance we've all fallen for repeatedly over the years.

McKellen's close friend Sir Patrick Stewart was also on hand. Though McKellen singled several attendees of the party out beautifully as he spoke to the crowd, about his fellow X-Man he joked...

Patrick Stewart and I are practically married at this point. But his wife is here so we won't talk about that."

I personally admitted to Sir Patrick that I keep almost going as him for Halloween. "That is a terrible idea!" he proclaimed, destroying my future dreams of Professor Xavier drag.

As for the man of the hour, Sir Ian McKellen was just as funny, warm, and winkingly arrogant as you could expect. 'I'm very good in the picture!' he agreed without shame with those twinkling eyes while chatting. He was a delight to talk to and especially gracious to fellow actors.

I told the twice Oscar nominated actor that I thought the makeup work to age him up for Mr. Holmes was incredible -- the actor is a spry 76 but he plays Sherlock Holmes as a frail 90something. He agreed and mentioned that "the big hooter" specifically helped him in feeling like someone else. Looking into the mirror after hair and makeup and seeing the character taking shape is a great help. 'Your body starts to join in,' he remarked hunching over to recall the aging affect. When it comes to actors and transformation, he quipped  'I knew what DNA was before the scientists!' 

related: current best actor chart | more on Sir Ian