Number Crunching & The Crowded Oscar Pundit-Sphere

Nate Silver Sometimes, often even, I curse the heavens that I wasn't better at the business side of things when I started on my course as an Oscar pundit. I was one of the first handful to arrive and being 'first' (or among them) is helpful as any business major will tell you. The fabulous life I was meant to lead *sniffle*. But each year the small pond of Oscar prognostication grows ever more crowded with big fish. This is not to say that when Salon reached out to me to discuss famous statistician Nate Silver becoming an Oscar pundit I was all [rough translation] "grumble. grumble. sour grapes"-- so I hope my quote doesn't read that way! In fact I really respect the size of Silver's career (since he didn't scream natural TV presence at all when he first emerged and I myself am terrified on camera so points for perserverance!) Plus, as a matter of basic pride, I love it when out gay men who don't easily fit any particular mold make it big. But the truth of the matter is that long before Silver became the go-to statistician for everything, statistics have been my least favorite aspects of Oscar punditry.

Many people have tried pure numbers-driven predictions and obsessive formulas in the past. Those works to a degree (especially with eventual winners) but one area they're terrible at is "there's a first time for everything" excitement and, surely, navigating the ever changing rule book. Predict the temper of the race especially in the lead-up to nominations is the fun movie-loving part and it doesn't have much to do with numbers. In my mind you can separate true Movie-Lovers from mere Oscar-Watchers merely by observing whether they care more about nominations than wins. Even people in your office pool can predict the winner as well as professionals do because they become obvious a month or two out in the headline categories (the only categories professional pundits get asked about anyway).  

But now that I've been forced to think aloud about the crowded punditry game -- with someone famous like Nate Silver in the mix I'll never get back on CNN, damnit! -- you should think along with me. Do you think there are too many of us? Who do you listen to in all the noise? What value do numbers hold over narrative?

Updated Oscar Predix: Saving Blue Jasmine Station

It was time to check back in with our popular charts, clean off the dust and rearrange the furniture. But, that said, the Oscar year has been off to a slow start since the blockbusters have had little in the way of Oscar contending elements (beyond visual effects) and the best films so far have been tiny (Frances Ha, Before Midnight, Mud) and Oscar is a size queen.

PICTURE & DIRECTOR
Before you say anything, no, I do not think Fruitvale Station will win Best Picture. I've placed it at #1 on the charts this week merely because it's the only film I'm certain will be nominated at this point. When you start getting grabby media headlines like  "Can a movie heal the nation?" people are already making your case for you. And, as rankings go, one should always remember that the charts are about nominations (until the actual nominations take place 178 days from now) rather than wins. I'm not one of those pundits that cares about who will win before we even have a nominee list; the nomination competition is the best part! I'd love to believe that Before Midnight had also already sealed up a nomination but I've never been convinced that AMPAS is really watching that intimate talky ephemeral once-a-decade brilliance. If they were they're crazy for not nominating the second film for Best Picture & Best Actress in 2004 (Million Dollar Baby's got nothing on Before Sunset in either category).

In other chart-shifting I've boosted Saving Mr Banks way way up (I know people were down on the trailer but Oscar predictions are about Academy taste rather than internet taste) and lost a bit of faith in Foxcatcher, though only really because its release plan is either nonexistent or very shy. [more]

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Review: Fruitvale Station

This review was originally posted in my column at Towleroad

Fruitvale Station, the first legit* Oscar Best Picture contender of 2013, hit a few theaters last Friday after months of pre-release buzz.

The buzz was fueled by a double triumph at Sundance this past January where it took home both the Audience Award and the Grand Jury Prize. The feature debut of 27 year-old writer/director Ryan Coogler tells the true story of the death of a 22 year-old African American man named Oscar Grant, who was shot by police on New Year's Day in 2009 at the Fruitvale BART Station in San Francisco. Watching it last Friday it felt like a modest success, a solid specific slice-of-life drama if not a great or ambitious one. But context is a funny thing. The very next day it was feeling much bigger.
 

Nothing exists in a vacuum and that includes the movies. On Saturday George Zimmerman was found "Not Guilty" in the death of Trayvon Martin, another unarmed black man (this time he was only a teenager), whose life was snuffed out nonsensically. The Weinstein Company who distributed the movie couldn't possibly have had better (or sadder) timing. If Fruitvale Station were a fictional drama, it might have felt unnervingly prescient opening when it did but since it is also based in fact it arrives like a stinging reminder of a shameful national pattern.[more...]

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Firth and Kidman Chug Along in The Railway Man

Glenn here looking at an upcoming film from my home country. I may live in America now, but I am still very much interested in what Australia is producing (as I and many of my fellow countrymen can attest, it's probably against my better judgement to do so). One title I've been keeping an eye on is Jonathan Teplitzky's The Railway Man. There a was a minor fuss a few years back when The King's Speech producers were denied Australian funding and, thus, when it won Oscars it was unable to be classified as an Australian co-production despite its producers being Australian and its others local ties. Well, the funding bodies learned their lesson and are officially on board with The Railway Man, a British/Australia co-production from the memoir by Eric Lomax.

Nathaniel showed a bit more faith than others in the project by listing it in several of his Oscar categories. Other prognosticators don't seem to even know it exists! I've been skeptical that the film would even see the light of day in 2013 since the Australian media love being able to hail a star vehicle such as this as "ours", and yet there hadn't been a peep in terms of trailers, posters, or a release date. They'd be all over it ("Our Nicole Returns Home!" read headlines during production) if there was anything to actually talk about. Well, it's Australian distributor has finally put it onto the schedule and they chose the biggest day of the year - Boxing Day, 2013. [more]

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Yes, No, Maybe So: "12 Years a Slave"

One of our 'Most Awaited Titles of 2013' has long been 12 Years A Slave and very little of that anticipatory impatience is due to its arguable Oscar Baitiness (but yes, I've predicted it for several things back when the April Fools Predix arrived). No, ninety percent of the excitement comes by way of its director (Steve McQueen) who has yet to make a movie that's anything less than unmissable. True, he's only made two features and one of them has its very vocal detractors but if you missed Hunger or Shame it's your loss. They're two of the most striking features of the 21st century 

For his third feature he's reunited with his muse Michael Fassbender but this time the focus is on another actor, Chiwetel Ejiofor who has long been on the bubble to major stardom. 

Will this potentially potent period drama do the trick? Our Yes, No, Maybe So breakdown follows...

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