Can Frozen's "Olaf" Melt Monty's Heart?

This weekend on the podcast Katey asked if Monty, the web's original feline Oscar pundit, had met Olaf the scene-stealing snowman from Disney's impending Frozen. Generally speaking, Monty HATES stuffed animals and has even attacked them while they sat immobile, innocent and helpless, on a bed or couch.  I decided to risk the swag anyway and placed Olaf on the couch.  Some hours later our furry friend was caught sleeping right next to him rather than attacking him. Notice how the paw DOES NOT touch the snowman, a crucial distinction separating 'sure, ok' indifference from 'yes please' affection.  

I pushed my luck and moved Olaf nose to nose with Monty...

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Notes From L.A.

backlit by L.A.'s eternal sunshineHello you. It's Nathaniel. I've been absent but with good reason. I'm in Los Angeles for a few days visiting friends and catching up with favorite peeps at a couple of studios before the season hits like a tornado and whisks us all away to the Merry Ol Land of Ozcars. But really things are already spinning furiously. And there's no Kansas. There's only New York and L.A. where your house might land. Los Angeles is sunny and beautiful and there are more blondes per block radius than you could ever imagine in NYC. I get why people love it here but I started longing for the East Coast within 36 hours. People complain that NYC is loud and crowded but at least you don't have to drive. Driving is terrifying here. Google maps is currently in hate with me for my frequent confusions on the road. I've driven to about 6 places and been lost 4 times. 66% chance of things going wrong! Yay me. 

 I just wrapped up a junket at The Four Seasons for Dallas Buyer's Club (more on that film real soon) and the conversation before the talent arrived was all about "locks" for Oscar. The press gathered were saying things like "there are 5 locks for... and 5 locks for..." and if you've been reading The Film Experience for any length of time whatsoever you will know that I was horrified.  This is not how it works people. Sigh. Entire categories don't lock up before the precursors and even when they do firm up, there's usually a deathmatch for slot #5 in any given category. Unless by "lock" you mean "this looks like it might happen but who knows" in which case the symboic word has lost all correlation to its real life counterpart so quit using it. 

I don't normally do junkets since it's virtually impossible to get fresh exclusive coverage from them. Apparently I have control issues because not being able to shape a conversation with a fine director (let's say, oh, Jean Marc-Vallée) or ask about his past work in relation to his new work while the noisiest junketeer in the room merely asks him to regurgitate the entire press note package for his entire alloted time in the room just makes me C.R.A.Z.Y.

HYPOTHETICALLY SPEAKING, YOU UNDERSTAND.

view from my room at the Four Seasons

 But I can't say that I didn't enjoy my time at the Four Seasons. Lounging poolside first thing in the morning, or typing in a plush bathrobe while the balcony door lets in a cool breeze, or a quick elevator ride up several floors to sit down with Matthew McConaughey? I'll take it!  

P.S. Good god his eyes are blue in person. When he touched the hand of the girl next to me to illustrate a point, I thought she might spontaneously combust. Or melt.

How is your weekend going? 

Monty & The Seasons First Oscar Screeners

Monty, my beloved gray furball, is the web's original cat Oscar pundit. So once again we beg his feline proclamations. They are usually mysterious and non-committal but there are also the unambiguous dismissals,  100% prescient predictions and dumb blunders... just like any pundit might make.

The first screeners of the season arrived last night: indie hit Mud and Sarah Polley's documentary hopeful Stories We Tell. I presented them to him. Which would Monty favor?

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Jessica Chastain ♥ Viola! Does Jessica Chastain ♥ Gravity?

Hayden, a faithful reader, commenter, and fellow actressexual, alerted me to Jessica Chastain's latest love-fest on Facebook. That girl does emote with girlie gusto and I love her for it (as previously noted).  I follow her so I'm not sure how I missed this one but if I were Sasha Stone at Awards Daily I'd be feeling pretty spectacular that such a great actress described me as "amazing". No world class actress ever said that about me [commence sobbing]...

I was busy picturing Jessica Chastain in an astronaut suit when I read this status update. Picturing Jessica Chastain in movies she's not in is an AMAZING time waste. Try it some time. After I was done with that I realized that Jessica said nothing about Gravity in this post, despite the link to Sasha's article. Maybe she hasn't seen it because if she had wouldn't she have said so?

Meanwhile Hayden was busy obsessing over the last sentence. He writes:

It really bothers me when people IN the industry talk about Viola Davis' career like some charity case. *cough* meryl *cough* But especially since Viola Davis is such a non sequitur to what Chastain was even talking about.

It's like she shouted "Mandy Patinkin, holla" at the end of her post.

LOL. 'Mandy Patinkin, holla' -- voiced by Claire Danes for her first Homeland win -- is surely one of the greatest things ever uttered in an acceptance speech and I think of it EVERY time that I see Mandy Patinkin being awesome. Which is often, in fact, since he is. I've loved him since the skinny-dipping in Yentl and that didn't even turn out to be the highlight of his cross-platform career.

Are you watching the new season of Homeland? This tweet made me laugh so hard last night...

They just gave Claire Danes Thorazine on #Homeland just to stop her from acting.

— Mick LaSalle (@MickLaSalle) October 7, 2013

Regarding Viola Davis...

Listen... I say what Jessica Chastain said all the time and it's true that it's a charity case. BUT NOT FOR VIOLA.

This charity is for audiences because she's a freaking GREAT actress and we need much more of her than Hollywood seems willing to give. Put her back in a spacesuit actually and we'll talk again. She was so good in Solaris in a typically small role. Remember that? Honestly I'd watch her in anything. Even when the movie is terrible (*cough* Beautiful Creatures) and her role is thankless, I'm happy to be watching her. 

P.S. If you missed my post on Jessica & Viola's latest collaboration, Eleanor Rigby, check it out.

P.P.S. Wow is this post a ramble. Viola. Mandy. Homeland. Facebook. Sasha Shout Outs. So much to discuss. Go!

Number Crunching & The Crowded Oscar Pundit-Sphere

Nate Silver Sometimes, often even, I curse the heavens that I wasn't better at the business side of things when I started on my course as an Oscar pundit. I was one of the first handful to arrive and being 'first' (or among them) is helpful as any business major will tell you. The fabulous life I was meant to lead *sniffle*. But each year the small pond of Oscar prognostication grows ever more crowded with big fish. This is not to say that when Salon reached out to me to discuss famous statistician Nate Silver becoming an Oscar pundit I was all [rough translation] "grumble. grumble. sour grapes"-- so I hope my quote doesn't read that way! In fact I really respect the size of Silver's career (since he didn't scream natural TV presence at all when he first emerged and I myself am terrified on camera so points for perserverance!) Plus, as a matter of basic pride, I love it when out gay men who don't easily fit any particular mold make it big. But the truth of the matter is that long before Silver became the go-to statistician for everything, statistics have been my least favorite aspects of Oscar punditry.

Many people have tried pure numbers-driven predictions and obsessive formulas in the past. Those works to a degree (especially with eventual winners) but one area they're terrible at is "there's a first time for everything" excitement and, surely, navigating the ever changing rule book. Predict the temper of the race especially in the lead-up to nominations is the fun movie-loving part and it doesn't have much to do with numbers. In my mind you can separate true Movie-Lovers from mere Oscar-Watchers merely by observing whether they care more about nominations than wins. Even people in your office pool can predict the winner as well as professionals do because they become obvious a month or two out in the headline categories (the only categories professional pundits get asked about anyway).  

But now that I've been forced to think aloud about the crowded punditry game -- with someone famous like Nate Silver in the mix I'll never get back on CNN, damnit! -- you should think along with me. Do you think there are too many of us? Who do you listen to in all the noise? What value do numbers hold over narrative?