Jessica Chastain ♥ Viola! Does Jessica Chastain ♥ Gravity?

Hayden, a faithful reader, commenter, and fellow actressexual, alerted me to Jessica Chastain's latest love-fest on Facebook. That girl does emote with girlie gusto and I love her for it (as previously noted).  I follow her so I'm not sure how I missed this one but if I were Sasha Stone at Awards Daily I'd be feeling pretty spectacular that such a great actress described me as "amazing". No world class actress ever said that about me [commence sobbing]...

I was busy picturing Jessica Chastain in an astronaut suit when I read this status update. Picturing Jessica Chastain in movies she's not in is an AMAZING time waste. Try it some time. After I was done with that I realized that Jessica said nothing about Gravity in this post, despite the link to Sasha's article. Maybe she hasn't seen it because if she had wouldn't she have said so?

Meanwhile Hayden was busy obsessing over the last sentence. He writes:

It really bothers me when people IN the industry talk about Viola Davis' career like some charity case. *cough* meryl *cough* But especially since Viola Davis is such a non sequitur to what Chastain was even talking about.

It's like she shouted "Mandy Patinkin, holla" at the end of her post.

LOL. 'Mandy Patinkin, holla' -- voiced by Claire Danes for her first Homeland win -- is surely one of the greatest things ever uttered in an acceptance speech and I think of it EVERY time that I see Mandy Patinkin being awesome. Which is often, in fact, since he is. I've loved him since the skinny-dipping in Yentl and that didn't even turn out to be the highlight of his cross-platform career.

Are you watching the new season of Homeland? This tweet made me laugh so hard last night...

They just gave Claire Danes Thorazine on #Homeland just to stop her from acting.

— Mick LaSalle (@MickLaSalle) October 7, 2013

Regarding Viola Davis...

Listen... I say what Jessica Chastain said all the time and it's true that it's a charity case. BUT NOT FOR VIOLA.

This charity is for audiences because she's a freaking GREAT actress and we need much more of her than Hollywood seems willing to give. Put her back in a spacesuit actually and we'll talk again. She was so good in Solaris in a typically small role. Remember that? Honestly I'd watch her in anything. Even when the movie is terrible (*cough* Beautiful Creatures) and her role is thankless, I'm happy to be watching her. 

P.S. If you missed my post on Jessica & Viola's latest collaboration, Eleanor Rigby, check it out.

P.P.S. Wow is this post a ramble. Viola. Mandy. Homeland. Facebook. Sasha Shout Outs. So much to discuss. Go!

Number Crunching & The Crowded Oscar Pundit-Sphere

Nate Silver Sometimes, often even, I curse the heavens that I wasn't better at the business side of things when I started on my course as an Oscar pundit. I was one of the first handful to arrive and being 'first' (or among them) is helpful as any business major will tell you. The fabulous life I was meant to lead *sniffle*. But each year the small pond of Oscar prognostication grows ever more crowded with big fish. This is not to say that when Salon reached out to me to discuss famous statistician Nate Silver becoming an Oscar pundit I was all [rough translation] "grumble. grumble. sour grapes"-- so I hope my quote doesn't read that way! In fact I really respect the size of Silver's career (since he didn't scream natural TV presence at all when he first emerged and I myself am terrified on camera so points for perserverance!) Plus, as a matter of basic pride, I love it when out gay men who don't easily fit any particular mold make it big. But the truth of the matter is that long before Silver became the go-to statistician for everything, statistics have been my least favorite aspects of Oscar punditry.

Many people have tried pure numbers-driven predictions and obsessive formulas in the past. Those works to a degree (especially with eventual winners) but one area they're terrible at is "there's a first time for everything" excitement and, surely, navigating the ever changing rule book. Predict the temper of the race especially in the lead-up to nominations is the fun movie-loving part and it doesn't have much to do with numbers. In my mind you can separate true Movie-Lovers from mere Oscar-Watchers merely by observing whether they care more about nominations than wins. Even people in your office pool can predict the winner as well as professionals do because they become obvious a month or two out in the headline categories (the only categories professional pundits get asked about anyway).  

But now that I've been forced to think aloud about the crowded punditry game -- with someone famous like Nate Silver in the mix I'll never get back on CNN, damnit! -- you should think along with me. Do you think there are too many of us? Who do you listen to in all the noise? What value do numbers hold over narrative?

Talking "Amour" on CNN

Look how happy I was guaranteeing Ralitsa that Michael Haneke is going to win an Oscar tomorrow on CNN International's World Report! 

I will always discuss Best Foreign Film if people will listen. Also, I desperately had to pee. 

VIDEO AFTER THE JUMP

Click to read more ...

I Did Surprisingly Well on My Predictions. And You?

Though I feared a complete and utter breakdown of my predictive skills this year, as it turns out I did about the same as usual which is quite wonderful given how difficult those fifth spots were this year and how much you had to chuck statistical expectations to get it right (Riva and Haneke and Amour had so little precursor support but I had a feeling from way back that they'd find their way in, that they'd be "sticky" enough as it were in the memory)

The Big Eight in the high profile categories Picture, Director, Acting and Screenplays I had an 81% degree of accuracy with 36/44 nominees guessed correctly. 
All Categories Absent the Shorts 77% (83/107)
All Categories Including The Shorts 74%  (91/122)

Last Minute Mistakes - I had a perfect predicted set in Production Design until I swapped out Life of Pi at the last second, thinking that Django Unchained might win a farewell honor for J Michael Riva who died during production. And last last night I stated on Twitter my regret that I didn't predict Waltz over Redmayne in Supporting Actor (a no guts no glory call that gave me no glory...). I would've been 100% there too though I remain confused that Waltz won more attention than DiCaprio or Jackson whose work in tandem is the best the highly uneven Django has to offer.

Categories I'm Most Proud Of - It was a cinch to predict Adapted Screenplay this year -- interview coming up with one of the nominees -- so my 100% guesswork there is no biggie and nothing to shout about. But I'm pleasantly surprised that I went 9 for 9 in Best Picture for two reasons. The first is that since I had placed them in if 7... if 8... if 9... order and all 9 lined up that I was spot on and the second and even better reason is that apart from about ½ of Silver Linings Playbook and about ¼ of Django Unchained I think they're all really good movies and six of them are on my own top ten list (which has been delayed due to all this Oscar madness)

I knew Colleen Atwood's death-fetish royalty porn wouldn't fail in the Costume category

I'm also pleased that I went 4 for 5 in so many categories (13 in all!) but particularly the difficult cases of Actress and Costume Design (missing only Mirror Mirror - I had predicted A Royal Affair instead since they often like royalty porn and one foreign film in that shortlist), and Foreign Film (I missed only "No" but I'm THRILLED about the nomination since it's such a great movie) arguably my 3 top interests as categories go. I am not nearly as well versed in Documentaries and Sound Editing so I was stunned to call 4 of those 5 correctly too.

Silver LInings Playbook is the first film since 1981 to receive nominations in ALL acting categoriesMy Worst Categories This Year - Like everyone else the shocking Best Director lineup threw me (3/5) but at least I got the Hooper snub / Haneke in mix right but where I made the biggest judgement call errors was Supporting Actress where I let my Nicole Kidman mania persuade me that they'd preserve her wild genius abandon (the Globe & SAG nods are wondrous though) and I confess that I didn't consider Jacki Weaver to be in the running at all. I am a huge Jacki Weaver fan -- she offered to adopt me during the Animal Kingdom campaign, maybe my fondest memory of that awards year -- but I didn't think that Silver Linings Playbook gave her enough to do to win #1 placements. 

But my absolute worst prediction field this year was Animated Short. Many people don't predict this category but I predict all categories and the shorts can be really tough. I only corrected guessed 2 of the 5 and am saddened that the eye-popping fascinating Eagleman Stag and the hilariously rauncy Tram didn't make the cut. 

Where were you most mistaken and which categories do you feel proudly totes psychic about?

Gold Thread, Crystal Host, Bronze Bragging (If We Must)

1. Open (Gold) Thread! What's one thing you most want to discuss in the post-mortem?
Besides the [ahem] obvious. Here's the schedule...

Tonight & Tomorrow
Key Moments, Internal Conflict, Good Speech, Final Takeaway
Wednesday
Fashion Wrap up.

2. Billy's Return?
One of the online Oscar sports each year is arguing about how well the Oscar Host did? I confess that this isn't an area that ever sparks much from me in terms of critique or conversation since The Host(s) isn't at all why I watch the show. But how'd you think he did?

I thought Reasonably Fine Not Special though there was an awful lot of asking for assurance that he was 'reasonably fine,' right? A lot of "wasn't that amazing/beautiful/special?" Um... if you say so, Billy.

3. How'd you do on your predictions?
I scored a not-embarrassing but hardly statue worthy 17/24. I assume this puts me outside the "shortlist" of Best Predictors, no medals for me. Not even bronze. I've been snubbed... by myself and my wishful / pessimistic thinking stumbles (either can get you into trouble). If you beat me, feel free to brag about it in the comments.