SAG Predictions - Let's Make 'em

The Screen Actors Guild Nominations will be held tomorrow at 5 PM PST and broadcast live on TNT and TBS and we'll probably live blog as we do. Who will the 100,000+ actors vote for? Voting ended earlier today at Noon so there's a quick turnaround between voting and the actual prize. So let's jump right in because yours truly is feeling daring. And don't make fun of me should I biff on ALL of these because I've never claimed to be any good at predicting anything other than Oscar.

ENSEMBLE - This is always the best category in theory and the least satisfying in practice (for many reasons). But who will win? With Spotlight and The Big Short battling it out for the Oscar's Best Picture prize they're obviously the safe money bets and I kind of want to go out on a limb with a no guts no glory call and suggest that Straight Outta Compton rides the constant tidal wave of the #OscarsSoWhite discussion for a surprise win and yet more editorials. So that's my alternate pick. I'm going to go with SPOTLIGHT in a tight finish with both Compton and The Big Short. But here's why I'm leaning this way: It's easy to picture it winning this even it loses the Oscar. I can't same the same thing in reverse for The Big Short. If the Big Short wins this it's all over and The Big Short is the locked Best Picture winner. 

BEST ACTRESS -BRIE LARSON
BEST ACTOR - LEONARDO DICAPRIO
No sense debating these two as they're wholly locked up for Oscar wins at this point, no matter who they're battling it out with on the ballot. 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS - As a reminder Oscar nominees Mara, Vikander, McAdams, and Winslet are competing with the non-Oscar nominated Helen Mirren (Trumbo) for this prize. This is a tough cal since literally none of the films are real "hits" and you could make an argument for anyone really. While the Oscar's voting body, which is heavily older and male, seems likely to pick Vikander, the new "it girl" for the gold on February 28th, SAG might feel differently. Might Winslet repeat her Globe win? My guess: KATE WINSLET (in a close race all around with Vikander or even McAdams right behind.)

SUPPORTING ACTOR - With current Oscar frontrunner Sylvester Stallone out of the contest this should be interesting. Stallone's dominance has made Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) look like an also ran so maybe the heat for the former thought-to-be frontrunner will have dissipated? Wouldn't it be crazy to see both Room actors pick up trophies and have little Jacob Tremblay win? My guess is a surprise win for IDRIS ELBA -- since they loved Beasts of No Nation (consider that absolutely bizarre "Ensemble" nomination for a film with only 3 really substantial roles) with Rylance as alternate. 

What are your predictions? Will you be watching? 

Beauty Break: Costume Design (Personal Ballot & Oscar Shortlist)

We're about to wrap up the "traditional" portion of the Film Bitch Awards which are essentially Nathaniel's Oscar ballot were he to have one in every category. (There will be more awards each day until we're finished -- before the Oscars, mind you! -- but they're the fun "extras")

Oscar's costume branch and I were fairly sympatico on our shortlists this year differing by only two pictures. Yet citing only 7 pictures (all featured after the jump) feels stingy. Costume heavy period pictures like Macbeth, Crimson Peak, The Assassin and Brooklyn definitely had their moments. Two contemporary pictures worth noting for their clever work were Youth and Chi-Raq. And then there are the pictures that have one costume so special it's what you always think of later on when you're picturing the movie: that lime green slit-to-there dress in M:I - Rogue Nation, the perfect action hero simplicity of Chris Pratt's functional but very tight outfits in Jurassic World, the barely visible sight of Jennifer Jason Leigh under huge furry everything in The Hateful Eight, that stylish pilot jacket in Star Wars: The Force Awakens that traded hands and so on...

In short, if you don't love costumes -- get outta here! Let's celebrate the five Oscar nominees plus two Nathaniel nominated in his own awards after the jump. Crazy gorgeous photos ahead...

OSCAR'S COSTUME DESIGN NOMINEES

Click to read more ...

Retro Sundance: 2006's Quinceañera

Dancin' Dan continues our classic Sundance celebration with a tenth anniversary of a film that should really have a bigger fan base.

Richard Glatzer and Wash Westmoreland's Quinceañera is one of those films that is inextricable from the story of how it was made: The two moved to the Echo Park area of Los Angeles, a primarily working-class Latino neighborhood that was rapidly gentrifying. After being invited to their neighbor's fifteenth birthday party - a Latin American right of passage known as a quinceañera - they were amazed by the elaborate ceremony and thought it would make a great setting for a film. Later, when thinking about making a drama partially based on their experience as a white gay couple in a gentrifying neighborhood, the idea resurfaced. And the rest, as they say, is history: Quinceañera won both the Grand Jury Prize and the Audience Award for dramatic feature.

Both of those awards make total sense after watching the film, which is a low-key crowd-pleaser that isn't afraid to tackle some big, complex issues head-on. Thankfully, the film isn't primarily about the white couple moving into the under-privileged area, but rather about Magdalena, a pregnant virgin, and her cousin Carlos, who is gay. Both have been thrown out of their homes for the seeming sins of their lives, and move in with their uncle (or tio) Tomas. The building where Tomas lives has recently been bought by a white gay couple, James and Gary, who move in and waste little time in starting up a ménage à trois with Carlos.

These three separate story threads - Magdalena's, Carlos's, and James & Gary's - combine to make Quinceañera not so much a coming-of-age story, but a coming-of-home story, looking at what makes us feel a sense of belonging both in life and in a specific place. And it's the film's sense of place that really makes the film resonate. The whole thing feels authentic, between the location shooting, the mostly non-professional (though quite talented) performers, and the cozy-looking living places. Everything has a lived-in feel that is more rare than it should be in films, and Glatzer and Westmoreland (who gave us Julianne Moore's Oscar-winning performance in Still Alice, just before Glatzer passed away) keep what little quirk there is grounded enough that it never grates.

This is a small film with a lot on its mind, and it stays true to its modest roots all the way through. It's a Feel-Good Movie that you really can feel good about.

Happy 10th Birthday, Quinceanera! Remind us to throw you a huge party in five years. You'll surely be just as wonderful as when you first premiered.

Sundance Buzz: Short Film Winners

The Czech queer short "Peacock" won Best DirectorWith the Academy Award short nominees opening in theaters today, it's a good time to note that the Sundance short film jury handed out their awards this week. This year's jury of three was Key & Peele's Keegan-Michael Key, MTV's chief film critic Amy Nicholson, and Amazon Studio's Gina Kwon. Since Sundance is a qualifying festival for Academy Awards you might hear the name of some of these shorts again in about a year. One of last year's big winners, for example, was World of Tomorrow by Don Hertzfeldt. That's an Oscar nominee right now for Best Animated Short. 

The 2016 Short Film Winners are as follows:

Grand Jury Prize Thunder Road (USA, Jim Cummings) an officer eulogizes his mother. Cummings is a producer/director with some shorts under his belt.
U.S. Fiction The Procedure (USA, Calvin Lee Reeder) a horror short about a captive man. Reeder has made several horror shorts and directed one of the segments in that anthology V/H/S
International Fiction Maman(s) (France, Maïmouna Doucouré) This one is about a young girl in a Parisian suburb whose father returns from Senegal with a surprise, a second wife
Non-Fiction: Bacon & God's Wrath (Canada, Sol Friedman)  an elderly Jewish woman cooking bacon for the first time and reflecting on her life. This short also received an honorable mention from the jury at TIFF in September so perhaps it's a legit long list contender for next year's Documentary Short competition?

Animation: Edmond (UK, Nina Gantz) see the teaser above. This short has been making the rounds for a bit now. It recently won the BIFA and it's a BAFTA nominee this year but it did not make the longlist cut to 10 finalists for the current Oscar competition. 
Outstanding Performance Grace Glowicki won for Her Friend Adam (Canada, Benjamin Petrie) in which her boyfriend's jealousy spirals out of control.
Special Jury Award for Best Direction: Peacock (Czech Republic, Ondřej Hudeček). Peacock bills itself as "a twisted queer romance" it's set in the 19th century and has something to do with the birth of an influential writer. The film promises "Suspense, laughter, violence, hope, nudity, sex, and a happy ending—mostly a happy ending."

Blanchett Coming to Broadway

The Team Experience prayer circle worked! Cate Blanchett will be returning to the New York stage, but finally on Broadway this time.

Her first steps on the Great White Way will be Anton Chekov's The Present, which will also be the first Broadway transfer of the Sydney Theatre Company that Blanchett co-artistic directed with her husband. They had previously brought Hedda Gabler, The Maids, and A Streetcar Named Desire (with Cate as none other than Blanche DuBois) to New York for those lucky enough to snag tickets to their limited engagements. The play, recently adapted by Upton, features themes of regret and unfulfilled desire that should prove meaty for the actress and her costar Richard Roxburgh (Moulin Rouge!).

Another exciting snippet of the production is John Crowley at the helm. He was criminally undervalued for his contributions this Oscar season with Brooklyn and is clearly gifted in stearing actors to rich portrayals. However, he is no stranger to the New York stage, having directed Broadway productions of Martin McDonagh's The Pillowman and A Behanding in Spokane.

The Present is expected to open at the end of the year, so be ready to snatch those tickets for this likely sell-out once they become available!