Best Supporting Actor: Oscar's Ballot & Mine.

I haven't been shy about my disappointment with this year's Best Supporting Actor Oscar Ballot, a lineup lacking in narrative oomph (which shouldn't be a factor in judging "best" but still makes Oscar way less fun to follow when he eschews it for old favorites) and missing several electric, fresh, film elevating and moving performances in favor of merely solid work from Oscar winners in popular films. I'm all in for Tommy Lee Jones winning since he's the only nominee Oscar & I agree is worthy to hold a place in this particular shortlist. [While we're on the subject of votes, you should cast yours in the poll]

Will he win? That's another matter entirely. I'd wager he still has the lead by virtue of a very long one (since November when he took it from Matthew McConaughey... who never really had it *sniffle* in the first place) even if the precursors have never quite settled on a frontrunner and even if his no-show at SAG didn't exactly help his cause. Christoph Waltz's BAFTA win for his leading role in Django Unchained (which might more accurately be called Schultz Unchains Django Who Only Takes Over the Film-Carrying Duties For the Final ½ Hour of a 2½ hour Film) suggest that the tide has shifted but in the end with Argo and Silver Linings Playbook campaigns both fighting so hard in the final weeks for wins, I'm not so sure that votes won't still be all over the place in this category, letting Tommy take turn two at the podium.

More after the jump...

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Link-o-mania

This week has been so relentless that I haven't had a chance to publish any of the links I've been storing up. It's a tidal wave of links for vous. You've lots to read this afternoon and over the weekend. Ready Set... Go...

news bits
David Poland on the binge-viewing model people are talking about post House of Cards. Incidentally I'm not at all for this. If I'm going to spend multiple hours watching something, I can catch up on movies I missed. My favorite thing about TV might be its serialized brevity. Don't ruin that TV gods.
Playlist another new pic from Behind the Candelabra the Liberace biopic - although i almost didn't link because I hate when images are trotted out as "first official" when we've all seen myriad photos already. Splitting hairs for traffic. But since it's a Liberace biopic I shall let it slide this one time. 
Cinema Blend Ryan Gosling uses the casting couch! Girlfriend Eva Mendes joins the cast of How To Catch a Monster, Gosling's directorial debut 
LA Times Wong Kar Wai's The Grand Master opens Berlinale and gets bought up by Weinstein Co. 
Guardian both Ellen Page and Melissa McCarthy are going to direct comedy features soon!
In Contention Good news. ParaNorman did solid enough business that Laika and Focus will reteam for The Boxtrolls (2014) 

star-gazing
Hammer and Thump Nicholas Hoult draws pictures for film bloggers. Ugh. So sad I didn't do Warm Bodies interviews now.
Coming Soon Hoult has also just joined the cast of Young Ones, a sci-fi thriller costarring Elle Fanning
Laughing Squid animated Superman gif throws dozens of iconic characters into the mix 

individualistic takes
A Blog Next Door looks at Django Unchained. Loved the very last observation and not just because I'm tired of people not realizing that this movie is infinitely inferior to Inglourious Basterds
Two Dollar Cinema enjoys Pitch Perfect's organized nerd singing despite his very manly nature
Cinematic Corner 'best of' whoa, someone really likes The Dark Knight Rises.

how very random
L Magazine Ryan Lochte recreates the iconic Nirvana "Nevermind" cover, although the swimsuit kinda kills the effort.
i09 wonders why Batman doesn't return to TV where it could totally thrive again
i09 10 movies that should become TV series right now. #1 is a great punchline
Hark a Vagrant makes an insanely long scrawl joke out of a pop culture moment from 1987 

retro
Film Doctor looks back at Alfred Hitchcock's Notorious -- one of my favorites from his oeuvre. 
Stale Popcorn issues a warning Terence Stamp's crotch will drive you loco in Teorema.

gold-digging
New York Magazine Frank Rich on Oscars in the Obama age. He'd vote Django Unchained and here's why.
LA Times finally finds a way to make those Oscar Luncheon group portraits interesting. Make them interactive. I totally loved clicking around here. You should too.
The Carpetbagger Tony Kushner responds to critiques of Lincoln and the notion of "accuracy" in historical recreations
Awards Daily thinks Supporting Actor is anyone's game 

♩To see- to sell- to get- to bring- to make- to LINK- to go to the Festival! Into the Woods ♫

Slate Why do people hate Anne Hathaway? Might it be sexism?
Yahoo Movies Roundtable on the Supporting Actress. I'm quoted here defending Hathaway naturally. One person even disses her for being so isolated as an actress like she's in her own movie. Um... THAT IS HOW IT SHOULD BE. Fantine's tragedy is that she's abandoned by the world and utterly alone. No safety nets or support systems.
Yahoo Movies Roundtable on Supporting Actor. This one is less divisive.
Variety's The Vote this is pretty horrifying. The Hobbit was added to the visual effects Oscar bakeoff without the committe actually seeing it. Terrible slippery slope there, Academy. Fix yourself! 

Kevin O'Keeffe on the twin protagonists of The Hurt Locker and Zero Dark Thirty
Pajiba this is so freaking sexy - 47 leading ladies in mannish clothing
Guardian Penelope Cruz is pregnant again... at least we'll see her a couple of times this year before she's gone again (Ridley Scott's The Counsellor and a cameo in Pedro Almodovar's I'm So Excited)
Billy on the Street "It's Spock! Do You Care?" haha. Zachary Quinto is a good sport. 
Awards Daily Mark Wahlberg and Ted will present at the Oscars. It's going to be a Ted heavy night what with the Norah Jones song, the host, and this presenting duo.
The Film Experience my choices for "best poster design" are up in the Film Bitch Awards 

Hollywood by now you've surely heard that it's official that Meryl Streep will play The Witch in Into the Woods. The film will be directed by Rob Marshall so expect lots of terrible reviews since the world probably hasn't forgiven him for Nine yet. Anyway I thought this called for a poll for all my fellow Sondheim fanatics out there. I've listed my favorite musical phrases from the Witch below and you tell me which you're most excited to hear Streep singing? Got it? Okay... Into the woods with you...

poll by twiigs.com

Off Cinema
Boston Globe "Smash" refashions itself into a show about the making of Broadway musicals for its second season. Promises promises, people. We shall see... (I'll be writing about the show weekly again this year)
Rasky Baerlein When pop culture and politics interlock: Obama and Jay-Z

The Twenty: Your Acting Royalty... Until Next Year

I sometimes like to think of each year's Official Oscar Nominees as pageant winners or an ambassadorial relay team representing the Arts. In my imagination they reign for exactly one year until they have to pass on the tiara or the torch. This is probably why the old tradition of having the previous year's winner present the corresponding opposite sex category feels so satisfying on Oscar night and why it's so alarming when they mix it up (I wonder about Best Actor this year. Meryl Streep has supposedly never presented a competitive Oscar category -- can that be true? -- and if so will she finally do so next month?).

This is all a fancy way of saying I've updated the charts and republished. You can pretend you have a ballot and vote on these categories! So check out the charts...

"Anne" & "Hushpuppy" (Emmanuelle & Quvenzhane)BEST ACTRESS
Emmanuelle + Jennifer + Jessica + Naomi + Quvenzhane
We knew the media would eat up the spectacle of the Oldest (Emmanuelle Riva) and Youngest (Quvenzhane Wallis) Best Actress nominee in history sharing a category but I was surprised to see that that factoid got even more screen time than the Beauty Queen Showdown to come in Naomi vs. Jennifer vs. Jessica on these stupid infotainment shows that I watch approximately thrice a year (generally around the oscar noms, golden globes, and sag awards). I'm always interested to see whether the braindead infotainment shows even mention the arthouse nominees each year -- what on earth will they make of Amour? I guess this.

BEST ACTOR
Bradley + Daniel + Denzel + Hugh + Joaquin
Two alcoholics, one crazy person, one poor soul who stole a loaf of bread and never stopped paying for it, and a President of the United States when they weren't so United. Can anyone beat Daniel Day-Lewis? I personally think that's a less worthy topic than this: how on earth did we get a category with this many stupendous performances in it? Even if one of your favorites was left off -- this isn't my exact lineup though it's close -- it would be churlish to complain. It might be my favorite full shortlist since 2003 (Ben + Bill + Johnny + Jude + Sean) without a dud or even an underachieving performance in the bunch. If only certain other categories *cough*thenextone* would have followed suit.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan + Bobby + Christoph + Philip + Tommy Lee
Presenting the only acting shortlist ever in the entire 85 year history of the Oscars that is composed entirely of previous winners. Several shortlists have eventually been composed only of Oscar winners as Joe Reid nerdily researched but that was all after the fact. Increasing the sting for those who like fresh blood at the Oscars, these performances aren't the most exciting. It's basically "good job, sir" and everyone moves on. For what it's worth this will be the category least like my own awards (I usually announce before the nominations but Oscar  threw me by announcing so early)

remember THR's actress roundtable? 5 of their 7 invitees were nominated

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy + Anne + Helen + Jacki + Sally 
Another year, another set of whores, longsuffering wives, and concerned moms. Oh Oscar, you do love your types! In fact, had I stopped to remember Oscar's favorite types in this category (which I've researched and talked about so much in the past that it became common knowledge -- 'longsuffering wife, she's in!' )  I wouldn't have done so poorly in my predictions for this particularly category this year. I somehow forgot everything I knew in the face of the blinding brilliance of Charlotte Bless & such. Now, you might argue that Helen Hunt is a new type and her character makes a point of explaining that she's not a hooker. But that's splitting hairs for Oscar when you're onscreen receiving money for sex.

I bring Helen Hunt up because Thomas Williams on twitter caught an error on the page earlier. I had accidentally copied and pasted and under her photo it read...

Despite an often bizzare and thorny relationship with celebrity, no one can doubt his gift."

Thomas wrote "even though this caption was meant for Joaquin Phoenix, I actually think some of it works here too :-)" Ha! I would agree with that. 

SEE THE CHARTS AND VOTE YOUR VOTES. Unless you have something left to see. The polls will remain up until the Friday before the Oscars so you have some time if you have to catch up on your screenings. (I will be adding to the charts as we go so they're not boring to revisit. Hope you enjoy.)

Final Nomination Predix: Big Day Ahead for Lincoln, Life, Les Miz

And here we are again.

I was amused to find myself named one of the 'Nate Silvers of the Oscar Race' today on Salon but Thursday morning will undoubtedly make the comparison less apt even if though we'll still share a first name (Nathaniel... why do people go by "Nate"?). In my soon-to-be needed defense it's a lot harder to successfully predict 120ish nominees in 24 categories that dozens of different groups are voting on (nominees, though not winners, are determined only by peers: actors voting for actors, directors for directors and so on) than it is to read an electoral map with only two candidates. Nor is their endless polling to guide us. Oscar voters aren't supposed to tell people who they're voting for. And even when they're willing to, filling out a weighted multi-named ballot is a lot different than checking a box for Candidate A or Candidate B when it comes time to let slip your favorites.

But I digress. Whatever the chaotic, agenda-driven, polarizing and exhausting race to Oscar nominations has in common with politics (quite a lot) we'll ditch the analogy now in order to dig in. I've never been one to care too deeply about statistics apart from the generalities they underline. So in the end I play my hunches.

PICTURE
Locks: Lincoln, Argo, Les Misérables, Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook

But What Else Will Be Nominated? infinite hand-wringing after the jump....

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