Oscar Chatter: If It's Yours To Lose, You Can Still Lose

Each year as the first "wow" factor players emerge in the Oscar race, pundits (professional and amateur alike), jump all over themselves to declare "winners!" in each of the acting races several months in advance. I always want to pass on analgesic creams when this begins to happen but then I'm more patient than some Oscar fans and prefer the slow sexy fight for nominations to the wham bam foregone conclusions of Oscar night.  If you believe the internet Cate Blanchett has it locked up in Best Actress (on the strength of her work in Blue Jasmine) and Oprah Winfrey has it locked up in Supporting Actress (on the rush of excitement that's greeted Lee Daniels' The Butler and her against type work... if you can have a type when you rarely act.) The only trouble is that no one has seen their competition. And your competition is half the equation at least as to whether or not you'll win. (One example: Does Reese Witherspoon's Walk the Line win in a highly competitive year? I think not.)

Oscar loves a drunk. Can Cate & Oprah both win while boozing it up?

The male categories are less clear though we've already heard quite a few "Leonardo DiCaprio finally has it for The Wolf of Wall Street!" (on the strength of his meme-worthy dancing and lively charisma in the trailer) and some have floated Bruce Dern as your future Supporting Actor winner for Nebraska... though his campaign remains a question mark. Nebraska, we know, is one of those Two Lead/Same Gender films that Oscar's acting branch has forgotten how to parse. Nobody ever tried to suggest that Salieri or Amadeus were supporting each other or that the true lead of Thelma & Louise was Thelma OR Louise but they would if those films opened today because times have changed and fans and campaign managers got increasingly shameless. 

So will any of these four win? Quite possibly, sure. But they could also all lose. One or more of them might not even be nominated! We haven't seen most of the competitive sets and until the great winnowing of December begins when the precursor awards race in to borify the entire race... let's keep an open mind and enjoy the wide world of possibilities!

OSCAR CHART UPDATES
Best Actress - Will Amy give Cate B a run for her money with Meryl maybe dropping out?
Best Supporting Actress - Can Sally Hawkins and Octavia Spencer stay in the conversation as Oprah sucks up all the late summer oxygen?
Best Actor -It might come down to Leo vs. Matthew unless Old Hollywood rallies for career honors for Dern or Redford or someone else surprises. Oh god, please let there be surprises this year!
Best Supporting Actor - only the editors know... seriously... nothing has happened yet. (sigh)

more updates to follow on the remaining charts

Yes, No, Maybe So: "Monuments Men"

Weep not for the embedded trailer I was going to use to discuss Monuments Men which vanished moments before I hit "publish". Trailers are not works of art we must protect from the Nazis so it's okay if they regularly get yanked or are seen in non-embeddable ways. They are but commercials for movies that we hope are works of art themselves. If you'd like to see the trailer to George Clooney's latest Oscar missile, click here.

I keep meaning to read the bestseller this film is based on but it basically about a group of older men on a special war time mission. They make like thieving soldiers to steal art from the Nazis before its destroyed.

YES

• Run, Jean Dujardin, run!
• Shoot Nazis, Bob Balaban, shoot 'em! [more...]

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The Podcast Returns: The Xanax Kicked In For "Blue Jasmine"

As we reach the final lap of summer, it's time to bring the podcast back for another Oscar season! Joining Nathaniel are Nick Davis, Katey Rich and Joe Reid.

This week we're talking about Nick's DVD Collection, Brooklyn Park Slope, New York Park Avenue, and Chicago moviegoing, whether or not Cate Blanchett is the frontrunner for Best Actress and what we think of the casting director's Oscar branch and the American Hustle trailer. But the bulk of the podcast is devoted to a Blue Jasmine breakdown. No not that kind of breakdown. Cate already covered the going mental part.

UPDATE: For those who are spoiler averse you might want to skip these parts:

11:40 - 12:16 
14:07 - 14:54
18:20 - 19:37

Thanks Alice for pointing these reveals out.

You can listen to the podcast here at the bottom of the post or download it on iTunes.

Blue Jasmine Breakdown

Review: Blue Jasmine

This review was originally published in my column at Towleroad

Cate Blanchett can't shut up in Blue Jasmine, Woody Allen's latest dramedy which added more cities this weekend for its platform rollout. We join Jasmine (real name "Jeanette") in medias res on a flight to San Francisco as she's chattering away with, no, at an older companion. She goes on and on (and on some more!) about her love affair with her husband Hal (Alec Baldwin) all the way through to baggage claim.

But Jasmine is a liar or at least a half truth-teller. We will immediately discover that her great love affair ended in ruin. Hal was a criminal, a financial con artist who pampered Jasmine with other people's fortunes and ruined everyone including Jasmine. She's moving in with her estranged adopted sister Ginger (Sally Hawkins), also ruined by Hal's crimes, now that she's destitute. Jasmine hasn't adjusted to her new facts, though, treating her cabbie from the airport like a personal chauffeur, and leaving him a big tip considering she's supposed to be penniless.Jasmine isn't always "in the now" as it were. She never is actually, talking or bragging or obsessing over the past. [More...]

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Updated Oscar Predix: Saving Blue Jasmine Station

It was time to check back in with our popular charts, clean off the dust and rearrange the furniture. But, that said, the Oscar year has been off to a slow start since the blockbusters have had little in the way of Oscar contending elements (beyond visual effects) and the best films so far have been tiny (Frances Ha, Before Midnight, Mud) and Oscar is a size queen.

PICTURE & DIRECTOR
Before you say anything, no, I do not think Fruitvale Station will win Best Picture. I've placed it at #1 on the charts this week merely because it's the only film I'm certain will be nominated at this point. When you start getting grabby media headlines like  "Can a movie heal the nation?" people are already making your case for you. And, as rankings go, one should always remember that the charts are about nominations (until the actual nominations take place 178 days from now) rather than wins. I'm not one of those pundits that cares about who will win before we even have a nominee list; the nomination competition is the best part! I'd love to believe that Before Midnight had also already sealed up a nomination but I've never been convinced that AMPAS is really watching that intimate talky ephemeral once-a-decade brilliance. If they were they're crazy for not nominating the second film for Best Picture & Best Actress in 2004 (Million Dollar Baby's got nothing on Before Sunset in either category).

In other chart-shifting I've boosted Saving Mr Banks way way up (I know people were down on the trailer but Oscar predictions are about Academy taste rather than internet taste) and lost a bit of faith in Foxcatcher, though only really because its release plan is either nonexistent or very shy. [more]

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