Beasts of the Precursor Wild

New Podcast ~ Part 2 of 2 
[Part 1 Here]
When we left off we were talking about the Globe Comedy and SAG Ensemble nods specifically and now the conversation continues. We turn to two films which could receive several nominations or none: The Master and Beasts of The Southern Wild and explore other Oscar mysteries too. [With Nathaniel, Nick, Katey, and Joe.]

Topics include:

• The Master and P.T. Anderson's shift from ensemble to two-man dramas
• Beasts of the Southern Wild, the outsider film
• Globe categorizations. Why wasn't The Sessions a comedy?
• Marion Cotillard is so Hollywood
• Screenplays, Original and Adapted
• Cinematography is neither Art Direction nor Visual Effects. Discuss
• Oscar Stats. Will Supporting Actor be the only acting lineup ever that goes in with all previous winners? 
• Screener piles. Are AMPAS voters more likely to watch The Paperboy or Compliance?

You can download the podcast on iTunes or listen right here at the bottom of the post. But, as always, the podcast isn't complete without you. Join in the conversation by commenting!

Beasts of the Precursor Wild

The Annual GG + SAG ≠ Oscar Conundrum

We've learned time and time again that precursor awards are not infallible barometers of what is to come with Oscar. Each year some actor or two manages the magic combo of a Globe and SAG Nomination but doesn't quite make it to Oscar's shortlisting. Previous examples include Leonardo DiCaprio in J Edgar, Tilda Swinton in We Need To Talk About Kevin, Maria Bello in The Cooler, Russell Crowe in Cinderella Man, Mila Kunis in Black Swan and so on...

Who do you think will meet the same finish-line stumble fate this year? 

poll by twiigs.com

Actress Battles: Jessica vs. Jennifer, Quvenzhané vs. History

In a rather beautiful turn of events, both Les Misérables and Zero Dark Thirty arrived to implications of raves (ah, pointless Les Miz embargo) and actual ones (ZDT had no embargo) and though neither are opening until Santa's elves are deep into overtime, they've made the forthcoming Oscar race much more exciting. What we have are real competitions in multiple categories. At least for now; precursor prizes have a way of flattening out the drama if they arrive at consensus too quickly. We've already discussed Les Miz's first screening and the Hugh vs. Daniel Best Actor race.

But while you're waiting for my Zero Dark Thirty review, let's discuss the confusing Best Actress race.

This particular shot is the second half of one of my favorite cuts of the year... from the screen she's watching to this face.

BEST ACTRESS
What's the confusion, you may be asking. Yes, Jennifer Lawrence is still the frontrunner for Silver Linings Playbook and yes Jessica Chastain will be nominated for anchoring Zero Dark Thirty with single-minded determination. More...

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Best Actor Battles and Hugh Jackman's Oscar Obstacle

Though most of my Oscar prediction chart updates have to wait for today's screening of Zero Dark Thirty (eeeeeeee! Bring it, Bigelow) it was safe to go ahead and revamp the Best Actor chart since Jessica Chastain can't compete there without significant alternate universe alterations. The chart has all new text, new rankings, links to reviews and past articles, and thoughts on locks, dark horse campaign angles. There's also an extensive list of vote siphoners that probably won't factor in but for random ballots from their most ardent admirers. That doesn't mean they aren't worthy of attention. It never does and never will since "Best" will always remain in the eye of the beholder.

HUGH vs. DANIEL
This weekend's debut of Les Misérables sent numerous industry professionals and media types (including myself) into a frenzy. (lots more after the jump)

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Is Skyfall's Oscar Buzz Real or Just Really Convincing Hype?

Though each new James Bond film lands with a media frenzy of sorts, Skyfall's box-office crushing tour of the Globe has even come with Oscar buzz. As an Oscar pundit, at first I felt I needed to do my killjoy duty and remind Bond-fans that the Academy has never been eager to have a martini with Bond, no matter how he orders it. But lately I've begun to wonder if, should the hype not subside much, the world's favorite super spy might finally win a nomination or two again. Two nominations would be a major win for Team Skyfall though the current hype would have you perceive that as a disappointing haul since it suggests that multiple nods and even a Best Picture citation are just around the corner. 

It's this overreaching by fans and the more excitable pundits that keeps forcing me back into Killjoy Corner. But let me repeat: a Best Picture nomination is not happening; Ten spots is not Twenty. And Bond Films aren't even close to the top of Oscar's Favorite Franchises heap anyway. Even with the fast Oscar-dream fade of The Dark Knight Rises and the artistically suspect decision to make The Hobbit into three films, history suggests that AMPAS is more likely to join Bruce Wayne or Gollum in the shadows again than James Bond. 

I should explain with facts (after the jump) before they go out of style again...

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