Prediction Updates: Lead and Supporting Actress

Oscar obsessives around the web, including myself, have been hung up on the Glenn Close vs. Meryl Streep Best Actress '80s Rematch! narrative for quite awhile now with Albert Nobbs and The Iron Lady still without real movie trailers to give the already popular media angle extra flavor. Less often discussed, and it's been nagging me for awhile now, is which young actress the Oscars will glom onto this year. Best Actress is often, statistically speaking, a beauty pageant who's who of hot 20 and 30something stars. This is not to say that the main race can't be between two 60-something ladies (it can if their names are Close & Streep) but we already know that that won't be the whole story even if it does turn out to be The Story.

There are three more slots to consider and more than that if you include the possibility that Close or Streep might not happen, if you include the precursor awards (which have room for more players) and the Supporting Actress category which has slightly more diverse preferences but which is still a sucker for a new "it" girl.

Which young beauties will be competing for gold? There isn't room for all of them.

Fresh Faces.
Which will Oscar get a Mulligan / Lawrence style insta-crush on?
ROONEY MARA, 26, with sociopathic edge and punk styling in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.
FELICITY JONES, 27, doing young romance drama in Sundance hit Like Crazy.
ELIZABETH OLSEN, 22, winning acclaim as cult member in Martha Marcy May Marlene and probably winning credit for being talented younger sibling of the gajillionaire Olsen twin sisters.
MIA WASIKOWSKA, 21, proving she can carry a film and also be excellent while doing so in Jane Eyre.
ANDREA RISEBOROUGH, 29, soon to be winning "best in show" attention for W.E. 
JESSICA CHASTAIN, 30, seemingly in every other movie released in 2011 and hardly recognizable from one to the next.  

Already Stars.
Oscar's sweet spot for Best Actress wins is late 20s to early 30s. 
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY, 26, serving mental patient realness in A Dangerous Method.
KIRSTEN DUNST, 29, undoubtedly memorably victimized in Von Trier's Melancholia.
MICHELLE WILLIAMS, 30, doing biopic iconography for My Week With Marilyn and romance for Take This Waltz 
EMMA STONE, 22, who won't get nominated for The Help but the enthusiasm about her career this year is totally hogging some of the spotlight that the other hopefuls are going to need. 

Who do you think will be showered with love and media attention 'round the holidays this year? Who will come up wanting? Which of the newbies will ever have careers as big as the "already stars"? Share your projections / wild prophesies in the comments.

Best Actress chart | Best Supporting Actress chart

1960s ~ Best Actress "Character"

Okay, voting was robust enough on the 1970s -- THAT POLL IS STILL OPEN -- that we're adding ten more years to take us back a full half century to 1961. If you're joining us late, here are the results from the 80s, and 1991 thru 2010. As before these polls are not asking you to choose the five best performances from fives years but to name which character creation hogs your mental real estate. (Sometimes those are the same things, sometimes they're not.)

Two polls so scroll down to make sure you get both.You choose up to five from each five year grouping. Here we go...

1961-1965

poll by twiigs.com

and once more for the next five years.

1966-1970
* please note on the following poll "Maggie Ross" The Subject was Roses should read "Nettie Cleary" The Subject Was Roses. I can't correct it lest I lose all your votes. So keep that in mind should you happen to be a fan of thise subject they call roses.  

poll by twiigs.com

This might be easier for some of you the further we go back, with less screenings winnowing down your vote. How many of you are unfamiliar with most of these roles? Lately I have begun to realize that anything older than the 1970s in the cinema -- unless it's epically famous -- tends to draw blank stares. I'm less well versed in 60s cinema than 50s or 70s cinema for some reason myself.

If you feel utterly flummoxed by a lack of personal experience here, why not use the results for rental ideas? Some of these movies (and/or performances) deserve bigger modern audiences than they get. I'll tell you who I'd have voted for a little later on.

70s "Best Actress Character"

Here we go again. We've been voting on the best Best Actress characters of all time. (Results of the 80s, 90s and 00s if you missed any.) These polls are not meant to represent which actress you would have voted for had you been an Oscar member but which characters are the most indelible in the Academy's history. Which of these fictional or fictionalized ladies from the 1970s take up the most mental real estate for you?

You can choose FIVE characters from each poll. The second poll is further down the page.

Ready Set Go

1971-1975

poll by twiigs.com

But wait there's more!

1976-1980

 

poll by twiigs.com

Happy Voting!

 Please tell your 70s mad friends about the poll. What a decade in cinema that was...

Your Fav' Eighties Ladies!

Over the past couple of months we've been holding "Best Character" polls for Oscar's Best Actress category history. We asked not who should win the Oscar but which characters own real estate in your memory. Previously you selected Miranda Priestley, Clarice Starling and other iconic bitches as your favorites from the Nineties and the Aughts. 

But what of the 1980s? Here are the results. *asterisks indicate Oscar winning performances.

Three unarguably iconic characters: Sophie, Celie and Aurora

1981-1985

1. *SOPHIE ZAWISTOWSKI (Meryl Streep) from Sophie's Choice
2. CELIE (Whoopi Goldberg) from The Color Purple 
3. *AURORA GREENWAY (Shirley Maclaine) from Terms of Endearment
4. KAREN SILKWOOD (Meryl Streep) from Silkwood
5. VICTORIA GRANT (Julie Andrews) from Victor/Victoria

Diane Keaton's wondrous performance in REDS (1981) has not been forgotten.Runners Up: To complete the top ten you'd need (in descending order) a third Streep with KAREN BLIXEN from Out of Africa, Debra Winger's EMMA GREENWAY from Terms..., Jessica Lange's rendition of troubled movie star Frances, and with nearly a tie for tenth place Katharine Hepburn's *ETHEL THAYER from On Golden Pond and Diane Keaton's LOUISE BRYANT from Reds. 

Observations: The Streepster's reascendance in the Aughts has obviously polished her earlier work to a healthy shine which would partially explain her tremendous lead as "Sophie" (well, that and the performance itself) and Karen Blixen's near top five placement, despite being hardly as memorable as Sophie or the other Streep/Karen. 

Weakest Showing: While Jessica Lange was an Oscar favorite in the 1980s, her JEWEL IVY in Country received 0 votes. But then Oscar's oft-derided "Year of the Farm Wives" fared terribly, with all three of the farm women failing to muster much enthusiasm. And to think they could have had Kathleen Turner's fiction writer Joan Wilder from Romancing the Stone in there. (She would've hit the top five most memorable characters, don'cha think?)

1986-1990

Dangerous Ladies ruled the Late Eighties

1. LT ELLEN RIPLEY (Sigourney Weaver) in Aliens
2. ALEX FORREST (Glenn Close) in Fatal Attraction
3. *ANNIE WILKES (Kathy Bates) in Misery
4. SUSIE DIAMOND (Michelle Pfeiffer) in The Fabulous Baker Boys
5. MARQUISE DE MERTEUIL (Glenn Close) in Dangerous Liaisons

Runners Up: Completing the top ten in descending order are Julia Robert's Pretty Woman VIVIAN WARD (who initially looked like a top three threat but kept fading throughout the course of voting), Cher's *LORETTA CASTORINI in Moonstruck, Streep's SUZANNE VALE (AKA CARRIE FISHER) in Postcards from the Edge, Anjelica Huston's hard as diamonds LILLY in The Grifters and in a tie for tenth place Holly Hunter's JANE CRAIG from Broadcast News and Jessica Tandy's *MISS DAISY the one who who drove right over the Pfeiffer/Oscar dream. Damn you, Oscar voters!

Observations: Looking back it looks like Meryl Streep owned the first half of the 1980s while Glenn Close threatened her dominance in the decade's second half. And to think they might go at it again this year?!? This poll was the most contentious of the six polls we've held with very small differences in rank between the winners and much in the way of surges and drops. A certain formidable alien fighting woman was always out front but Alex Forrest refused to be ignored and wouldn't allow her a huge lead. Spots 3 through 10 shifted repeatedly with my beloved Kathleen Turner's PEGGY SUE just missing the top ten. [Sniffle]

Fonda and Bridges in THE MORNING AFTER (1986)Weakest Showing: Jane Fonda's ALEX from The Morning After  (which Nick and I tried to recall on the "1986" podcast) received 0 votes from the nearly 800 cast. Of Fonda's seven nominations it's her last and (obviously) her least remembered. It's currently available on Netflix's Instant Watch. Sadly Sally Kirkland's ANNA only barely registered. Kirkland is best known to today's audiences as that crazy-dressing lady who sometimes shows up at the Oscars but that surprise nomination for 1987 was hard-earned. Don't believe me? Watch the movie on Netflix Instant Watch.

Should we do the 1970s?  
What do you make of these 80s polls? Did your fellow TFE readers choose well or would you like to stalk them with Alex Forrest's butcher knife, Ripley's flame-thrower or Annie's hobblin' hammer and right the wrongs they done?

Best Actress "Character" 1981-1990

Time for more polls! Same situation as before. I'm asking not who you think should have won the Oscar but which Best Actress nominated roles are the most memorable for you. Who are the characters you think of the most from movie history (albeit through the lens of Oscar since some great role aren't nominated).

Two polls ahead -- I think we'll quit here since fewer people will play from the 70s backwards -- so please vote on both. Pick the 5 roles that are the "stickiest" in your head, the most memorable, from each poll of Best Actress nominated characters.

1981-1985
Choose up to 5 women

poll by twiigs.com

1986-1990
Choose up to 5 women

poll by twiigs.com

Does anything surprise you while reviewing your options?