Which of the First-Time Nominees Will Return Soon to Oscar?

Some years ago now I did a study on how often actors win second nominations. I can't find the figures at the moment but I believe it was around 42%. Obviously it's not as many as we pretend each Oscar love-in season. Though it's arguably easier to win a second nomination than it is a first -- they're already considering you if you will -- that doesn't mean it's easy, if you get me. The Oscars are definitely a pyramid in shape. There's only one actor with 18 nominations and there are hundreds of thousands with 0. I don't mean to be a bummer, just to underline how special and rare the Oscar experience is even for celebrity actors. Lineups like Best Actress this time, which I believe has the highest average nomination count of all time in an acting shortlist, fool us into believing otherwise but the majority of first nominations are also last nominations. 

the first-timers this year that DIDN'T win: Chiwetel, Sally, Barkhad, Fassy, June*should we do a fashion post?

But let's stay optimistic!

Who among this year's first-time nominees do you think will be the first to be invited back? Explain your choice in the comments. I think I'm going with Sally Hawkins only because her work has been really solid for a long time and now that they've noticed her, perhaps a rush of even better roles will happen? It's not always easy to predict. I mean, who among us thought that Jonah Hill would be the first among the new men from the class of 2011 to do it? There's no wrong answer. At least not for another year or three. 

poll by twiigs.com

If you like this poll, there are more, you know. Vote on those, too!

And the Link Goes To...

Mashable "12 Ways June Squibb is the New Jennifer Lawrence"
Kenneth in the (212) Indiewire article on The Normal Heart appears to be outing Taylor Kitsch. Typo? Weird punctuation? Odd sentence structure?
Yahoo Movies premieres the Paddington teaser. But don't get too excited Nicole Kidman is nowhere to be seen
/Film The Avengers Age of Ultron scrambling to rethink shooting schedule. They start shooting next month when Scarlett Johansson will totally be showing (4 months pregnant at the moment)

MNPP do dump or marry: two Hemsworths, one Ben
Dark Horizons Hugh Jackman planning to hang up the Wolverine claws soon. YES! I 100% co-sign everything my friend JA says about this one on his blog:

Honestly at seven films down I'm kind of ready for Jackman to do something else, too. As long as he keeps taking his clothes off, of course! But the bulging vein Wolverine look has gotten to be too much. Smaller and sleeker but still naked - that's what he should do.

Oscar Hangover
Self Styled Siren a must read on Kim Novak's industry history and her Oscar appearance
LA Times a Memo to Hollywood on Lupita Nyong'o's future. (Her slate is pretty much free now -- Who's going to sign her to what?)
MNPP is this the best picture from the Oscar after parties? The expressions!
The Wire "We All Have To Get On The Same Page Of What Oscars Year This Is" I'm so happy Joe Reid has joined me on this lonely battlefield  
Variety 5 brands that deserve an Oscar for marketing. Arby's certainly made a brilliant move on Oscar day

Today's Watch...

Idina Menzel remembering to have fun with the third defining song of her career on Jimmy Kimmel. (If you haven't been paying attention -- her two other huge cultural moments were "Defying Gravity" in Wicked and Maureen in general in Rent & "Take Me or Leave Me") 

15 Days Til Oscar ~ Supporting Oscar Chart Fun!

Have you voted on the polls yet? I feel like you haven't voted on the polls yet. Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor, in particular,  have been bereft of your attention. While you're there check out the new "how'd they get nominated?" analysis on both of those categories

Did "Katniss" help Jennifer Lawrence win a nomination for "Rosalyn" and how much did "Plunging Necklines" factor into each of the American Hustle nominations? The percentages are cooked up in my very own science oven. They're 100% accurate!

Previously
16 Days - Irene Sharaff's 16 nominations 
17 Days - Looking back at The English Patient, Sal Mineo... and 1917?
18 Days - Meryl Streep's 18th nomination
19 Days - Julianne Moore's awards history
20 Days - Flashback '93 Oscars: Age of Innocence, Farewell My Concubine, The Piano
21 Days - What's your favorite Billy Wilder? 

Nebraska, Finely Aged and Potentially Oscar Record-Breaking

I'm sure you've seen the melancholy yet uplifting new spot for Nebraska that points out the ages of its principal cast and how long they've been acting. It's inspiring, for sure, as longevity often is. Hollywood and the Oscars often favor the sprinters (note all the stars, particularly actresses, who won too soon and all the films that opened in the rush of awards season that were only hot for two months) but life is a marathon.

Assuming Bruce Dern and June Squibb are both nominated on January 16th (and smart money says they will be) they'll both be among the top three oldest performers ever nominated in their categories. It will break down like so...

OLDEST BEST ACTOR NOMINEES
01 Richard Farnsworth, The Straight Story (1999) who was 79
02 Bruce Dern, Nebraska (20) who is 77*
03 Henry Fonda, On Golden Pond (1981) who was 76
04 Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby (2004) who was 74
05 Peter O'Toole, Venus (2006) who was also 74
06 Morgan Freeman, Invictus (2008) who was 72
07 Sir Laurence Olivier, The Boys From Brazil (1978) who was 71
08 Frank Langella, Nixon (2008) who was also 71
09 Paul Newman, Nobody's Fool (1994) who had just turned 70

Those are the only 70somethings ever nominated for Best Actor... if Robert Redford and Bruce Dern are both nominated we'll have a perfect full top ten of 70something Best Actor candidates; they're only two months apart in age (with Dern born first). Among these senior men Henry Fonda was the only winner. If Dern wins --  and I've long thought he might with that magic combo of a likely Best Picture nominee, a moving performance, and a stellar campaign --  he'll become the oldest winner ever in the Best Actor category. 

OLDEST BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS NOMINEES
01. Gloria Stuart, Titanic (1997) who was 87... and the oldest in *any* category actually
02. Ruby Dee, American Gangster (2007) who was 85 *but there are conflicting reports on her age*
03. June Squibb, Nebraska (2013) who is 84
03. Jessica Tandy, Fried Green Tomatoes (1991) who was 82
05. Eva Le Gallienne, Resurrection (1980 - recently discussed) who had just turned 82

Those are the only 80somethings ever nominated in Supporting Actress and none of them won. Can June Squibb break the pattern this year? (The current oldest winner ever in this category is Dame Peggy Ashcroft for A Passage to India (1984) who was 77). Speaking of Squibb, have you been watching the American remake of the British nursing comedy series Getting On? Squibb guest stars in one episode as a foul-mouthed cigarette-smoking patient. She and Niecy Nash are pretty great together.

What do you make of Dern & Squibb's Oscar chances? 

Podcast: A Nebraskan Thanksgiving!

Happy Holiday Podcast!

In this week's episode, Nathaniel, Katey and Nick prepare for the impending Thanksgiving dinners by sharing our favorite turkeys (movies) and succulent hams (actors). We answer reader-submitted questions on topics ranging from Jennifer Lawrence's meteoric rise to fame, through Michael Fassbender's decision not to campaign for Oscar and on to confessions about nominated movies and performances we've never seen. Plus: Nathaniel and Katey share celebrity run-ins with Melissa Leo (Prisoners) and Nicole Holofcener (Enough Said)

But we begin by taking a black and white road trip to Best Picture hopeful Nebraska with Alexander Payne as tour guide. (Nick doesn't like the way he drives but Katey and Nathaniel enjoy the view) 

You can listen at the bottom of the post or download it on iTunes. Join in the conversation in the comments.

Nathaniel and Katey (& their friend Rob in the middle) November 2012

We also briefly mention last year's Fox Searchlight Holiday party (as well as this year's) and our friend Rob so I thought I'd include this photo that Katey and I took there a year ago. 

A Nebraskan Thanksgiving