Final Oscar Predictions

A shorter version of this article was originally shared on Towleroad

With the 90th Academy Awards coming tomorrow another tradition must precede it:  predicting the Oscar winners! If you're a frequent reader of The Film Experience, you've probably been following this race for an entire year and now it's about to end. Those who only follow in the last month have a lot of catching up to do (I have a friend here in NYC doing that Best Picture marathon -- all nine movies).  If you'd like to keep up more emphatically next year please sign up for our mailing list as we will begin weekly newsletters shortly after the Oscars with exclusive content.

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But this season's race ends Sunday night. Hopefully without a snafu on the epic scale of last year’s Envelope Gate when La La Land was read out as Best Picture when Moonlight had actually won. Can you believe that Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway are returning for a do over? (Or do you think that news is smoke and mirrors to hide another surprise in store?)

I am sad to share that there’s a possibility that all of the best “Best Pictures” (Get Out, Lady Bird, and Call Me By Your Name) go home empty-handed but what else is new? Not to be pessimistic but Oscar night is often a come down from the multiple-winners joy of nomination morning. Or to quote the great Stephen McKinley Henderson in Lady Bird...

The high probability of wins you don't like is why you should always attend or throw a fun Oscar party and try not to take it too seriously. Enjoy the gowns and the speeches and celebrate every film and celebrity you love as they're paraded before you on Hollywood's High Holy Night. 

Let’s call each individual Oscar race after the jump. Links will take you to the Oscar chart in question...

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Final Balloting is Underway...

Members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (that's AMPAS to you!) can now cast their votes on the Oscar winners in all categories. They have one week to do so with ballots closing on February 27th. The long stretch between nominee and winner voting should ostensibly give them time to screen all the movies they may have been late in getting to and to really suss out their views of "Best" in each category, but strangely this waiting period doesn't usually result in the game-changing upheavals, contrarian impulses, or reconsiderations that you would think would be possible. That's especially true when the precursors march forward in total agreement (as recently discussed in the BAFTA winners post). 

So while we can't bring you DRAMA in these last 12 days pre-Oscar (del Toro, McDormand, Oldman, Janney and Rockwell are all as locked as locked can be) we hope to find other ways to entertain you as we count down and wrap up the film year in these next two weeks. 

Nevertheless if you have a miracle request / FYC to Academy voters put it out their into the universe (i.e. the comments) in a positive 'look at this beauty' way.

Blueprints: The Nominees for Best Original Screenplay

With the Oscar nominations finally announced, Jorge takes a deep dive into the nominees for Best Original Screenplay.

We all rose to the crack of dawn on Tuesday morning to hear Tiffany Haddish give the most upbeat and energetic nomination announcements in recent memory. One of the best picked categories was Best Original Screenplay. Even though there were no real surprises, it showcases a range of diversity not often seen: among the nominees is a Pakistani, a Mexican, a black man, and three women. Three of those people were also nominated for Best Director.

So let’s do a quick roundup on the nominees, their writers, their past history with Oscar, and what scene might have helped land them that nomination... 

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Globe Predictions Anyone?

by Nathaniel R

A few days back David Poland asked the Gurus of Gold to predict the Globes and I became obsessed with the notion that I, Tonya would be the surprise heavyweight. I was pretty much alone in that with nearly the entire group thinking Lady Bird's got this in the bag (a couple of people think Get Out). I think my I Tonya prediction was more a product of my fear since the wildly positive response to the movie surprised me and sent me back for a second viewing which only strengthened my resolve that it's a) not good and b) highly problematic...

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All Oscar Charts Updated

Wanting to while away a few minutes between Christmas feasts, clean up, or socializing? Check out the fully updated Oscar predictions. A gain here or there for Get Out, Three Billboards, Victoria & Abdul, Mudbound, and Wonder a big net loss for Darkest Hour and various tinkering. Meanwhile Oscar voting doesn't even start until January 5th so here comes the last big push for campaigns to get those screeners watched and the movies talked about!

Would Be Totally Confusing If It Were Still 5 Only, Right?: Picture
Will Hurt From the Inevitable Snubs: Director and Original Screenplay
Outcome Still Feels Quite Cloudy: Foreign Film, Adapted Screenplay, Animation and Docs
Locked But For "Never Underestimate Judi Dench" Factor: Actress
Precursors Shook 'Em Up: Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress
Anyone's Guess: Visuals and Aurals